Predicting the June 2013 European Flooding Based on Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Sea Level Pressure

• Published in: Journal of hydrometeorology 2015-04, Vol.16 (2), p.598-614
• Main Authors: Ionita, M., Dima, M., Lohmann, G., Scholz, P., Rimbu, N.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate change; Climatic extremes; Datasets; Drainage basins; Flood damage; Flood forecasting; Flood predictions; Flooding; Floods; Forecasting models; Hydrology; Insured losses; Modeling; Precipitation; Pressure; Regression models; River discharge; River flow; Rivers; Sea level; Sea level pressure; Soil; Soil moisture; Soil water; Soils; Stream flow; Time series forecasting; Water discharge; Weather forecasting
• ISSN: 1525-755X; 1525-7541
• DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0156.1

Over recent decades Europe has experienced heavy floods, with major consequences for thousands of people and billions of euros worth of damage. In particular, the summer of 2013 flood in central Europe showed how vulnerable modern society is to hydrological extremes and emphasized once more the need for improved forecast methods of such extreme climatic events. Based on a multiple linear regression model, it is shown here that 55% of the June 2013 Elbe River extreme discharge could have been predicted using May precipitation, soil moisture, and sea level pressure. Moreover, the model was able to predict more than 75% of the total Elbe River discharge for June 2013 (in terms of magnitude) by also incorporating the amount of precipitation recorded during the days prior to the flood, but the predicted discharge for the June 2013 event was still underestimated by 25%. Given that all predictors used in the model are available at the end of each month, the forecast scheme can be used to predict extreme events and to provide early warnings for upcoming floods. The forecast methodology could be relevant for other rivers also, depending on their location and their climatic background.