Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S

• Published in: Journal of environmental management 2015-03, Vol.151, p.186-199
• Main Authors: Costanza, Jennifer K., Terando, Adam J., McKerrow, Alexa J., Collazo, Jaime A.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate Change; Climate-resilient; Conservation; Dynamics; Ecosystem; Ecosystems; Environmental management; Fires; Global warming; Management; Models, Biological; Open-canopy longleaf; Pine; Pinus - physiology; Pinus palustris; Southeastern United States; State-and-transition simulation model; Sustainable development; Trees; U.S.A; Urban growth; Urbanization; Wildfires
• ISSN: 0301-4797; 1095-8630
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.12.032

Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the face of these drivers. Our results show that while climatic warming had little effect on the wildfire regime, and thus on longleaf pine dynamics, urban growth led to an 8% reduction in annual wildfire area. The management scenarios we tested increase the ecosystem's total extent by up to 62% and result in expansion of open-canopy longleaf by as much as 216%, meeting one of the two conservation goals for the ecosystem. We find that both conservation goals for this ecosystem, which is climate-resilient but vulnerable to urbanization, are only attainable if a greater focus is placed on restoration of non-longleaf areas as opposed to maintaining existing longleaf stands. Our approach demonstrates the importance of accounting for multiple relevant anthropogenic threats in an ecosystem-specific context in order to facilitate more effective management actions. •We model effects of climate and urban growth on longleaf pine.•We asked whether future management scenarios can meet longleaf conservation goals.•Urban growth has a larger modeled effect on the ecosystem than climate change.•Management scenarios tested can meet one of two conservation goals.•A greater focus on restoring non-longleaf stands will help meet both goals.