International Direct Real Estate Risk Premiums in a Multi-Factor Estimation Model

We estimate international risk premiums for North and South Asia and US direct real estate by using a pooled-panel multi-factor least squares model. Data for the paper are from JLL REIS-Asia and the Russell-NCREIF Property Indexes. Our results, based on the Geltner and Miller (2007) 1 st and 4 th or...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The journal of real estate finance and economics 2015-07, Vol.51 (1), p.52-85
Main Authors: Ho, David Kim Hin, Addae-Dapaah, Kwame, Glascock, John L.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Capital assets
Economics
Economics and Finance
Equity
Financial Services
International
Investments
Least squares method
Macroeconomics
Real estate
Real estate sales
Regional/Spatial Science
Regression analysis
Residential areas
Risk
Risk factors
Risk premiums
South Asia
Studies
U.S.A
Vacancies
Volatility
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Summary:We estimate international risk premiums for North and South Asia and US direct real estate by using a pooled-panel multi-factor least squares model. Data for the paper are from JLL REIS-Asia and the Russell-NCREIF Property Indexes. Our results, based on the Geltner and Miller (2007) 1 st and 4 th order autoregressive de-smoothing models, affirm the existence of appraisal smoothing in the direct real estate market returns. Secondly, our findings affirm that the true historical volatility of autoregressive lagged de-smoothed returns is a reasonable estimate of international direct real estate risk premiums. Thirdly, we find that changes in macroeconomic and real estate variables explain the office and retail returns more than the residential returns. There is also a high vacancy rate risk premium that we attribute to country-specific, institutional environmental factors. Furthermore, the South Asia direct real estate risk premium is found to be higher than that for North Asia. Moreover the risk premiums for North and South Asia are higher than that for the US. Finally, our results show that appraisal smoothed returns significantly underestimate the international direct real estate risk premiums for the sampled Asia markets and the US.
ISSN:0895-5638
1573-045X
DOI:10.1007/s11146-014-9474-z