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Sociological Environmental Causes are Insufficient to Explain Autism Changepoints of Incidence
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently published a study analyzing time trends in the cumulative incidence of autistic disorder (AD) in the U.S., Denmark, and worldwide. A birth year changepoint (CP) around 1988 was identified. It has been argued that the epidemic rise in autism over the...
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Published in: | Issues in law & medicine 2015, Vol.30 (1), p.25-46 |
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description | The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently published a study analyzing time trends in the cumulative incidence of autistic disorder (AD) in the U.S., Denmark, and worldwide. A birth year changepoint (CP) around 1988 was identified. It has been argued that the epidemic rise in autism over the past three decades is partly due to a combination of sociologic factors along with the potential contribution of thimerosal containing vaccines. Our work conducted an expanded analysis of AD changepoints in CA and U.S., and determined whether changepoints in time trends of AD rates temporally coincide with changepoints for the proposed causative sociologic and environmental factors. Birth year changepoints were identified for 1980.9 [95% CI, 1978.6-1983.1], 1988.4 [95% CI, 1987.8-1989.0] and 1995.6 [95% CI, 1994.6-1996.6] for CA and U.S. data, confirming and expanding the EPA results. AD birth year changepoints significantly precede the changepoints calculated for indicators of increased social awareness of AD. Furthermore, the 1981 and 1996 AD birth year changepoints don't coincide with any predicted changepoints based on altered thimerosal content in vaccines nor on revised editions of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM). |
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A birth year changepoint (CP) around 1988 was identified. It has been argued that the epidemic rise in autism over the past three decades is partly due to a combination of sociologic factors along with the potential contribution of thimerosal containing vaccines. Our work conducted an expanded analysis of AD changepoints in CA and U.S., and determined whether changepoints in time trends of AD rates temporally coincide with changepoints for the proposed causative sociologic and environmental factors. Birth year changepoints were identified for 1980.9 [95% CI, 1978.6-1983.1], 1988.4 [95% CI, 1987.8-1989.0] and 1995.6 [95% CI, 1994.6-1996.6] for CA and U.S. data, confirming and expanding the EPA results. AD birth year changepoints significantly precede the changepoints calculated for indicators of increased social awareness of AD. Furthermore, the 1981 and 1996 AD birth year changepoints don't coincide with any predicted changepoints based on altered thimerosal content in vaccines nor on revised editions of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM).</description><identifier>ISSN: 8756-8160</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2377-6463</identifier><identifier>PMID: 26103707</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: National Legal Center for the Medically Dependent and Disabled Inc</publisher><subject>Autism ; Autistic Disorder - epidemiology ; Clinical Competence ; Communication ; Datasets ; Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders ; Education, Special - economics ; FDA approval ; Financing, Government ; Humans ; Incidence ; Preservatives, Pharmaceutical - analysis ; Publishing ; Revisions ; Sociology ; State budgets ; Studies ; Thimerosal - analysis ; United States - epidemiology ; Vaccines ; Vaccines - chemistry</subject><ispartof>Issues in law & medicine, 2015, Vol.30 (1), p.25-46</ispartof><rights>Copyright National Legal Center for the Medically Dependent and Disabled Inc. 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A birth year changepoint (CP) around 1988 was identified. It has been argued that the epidemic rise in autism over the past three decades is partly due to a combination of sociologic factors along with the potential contribution of thimerosal containing vaccines. Our work conducted an expanded analysis of AD changepoints in CA and U.S., and determined whether changepoints in time trends of AD rates temporally coincide with changepoints for the proposed causative sociologic and environmental factors. Birth year changepoints were identified for 1980.9 [95% CI, 1978.6-1983.1], 1988.4 [95% CI, 1987.8-1989.0] and 1995.6 [95% CI, 1994.6-1996.6] for CA and U.S. data, confirming and expanding the EPA results. AD birth year changepoints significantly precede the changepoints calculated for indicators of increased social awareness of AD. Furthermore, the 1981 and 1996 AD birth year changepoints don't coincide with any predicted changepoints based on altered thimerosal content in vaccines nor on revised editions of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM).</description><subject>Autism</subject><subject>Autistic Disorder - epidemiology</subject><subject>Clinical Competence</subject><subject>Communication</subject><subject>Datasets</subject><subject>Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders</subject><subject>Education, Special - economics</subject><subject>FDA approval</subject><subject>Financing, Government</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Preservatives, Pharmaceutical - analysis</subject><subject>Publishing</subject><subject>Revisions</subject><subject>Sociology</subject><subject>State budgets</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Thimerosal - analysis</subject><subject>United States - epidemiology</subject><subject>Vaccines</subject><subject>Vaccines - chemistry</subject><issn>8756-8160</issn><issn>2377-6463</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2015</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>ALSLI</sourceid><sourceid>BGRYB</sourceid><sourceid>M0O</sourceid><recordid>eNpd0E1LxDAQBuAgiruu_gUJePFSyEebpMelrLogeFCvlmw6WbO0SW0a0X9vwPXiaRjmYWZ4T9CScSkLUQp-ipZKVqJQVJAFuojxQAihpK7O0YIJSrgkconenoNxoQ97Z3SPN_7TTcEP4OfcNTpFiFhPgLc-JmudcXmC54A3X2OvncfrNLs44OZd-z2Mwfk54mAzN64Db-ASnVndR7g61hV6vdu8NA_F49P9tlk_FiMV9VyourOy0wBS6p0EUNwaqIkWNVWk1DWU1BqpKqst71QpDGU7y0xZGWWU5Zyv0O3v3nEKHwni3A4uGuh77SGk2OYrlClOpcz05h89hDT5_F1WqhaCCcmyuj6qtBuga8fJDXr6bv-S4z-3s2wL</recordid><startdate>2015</startdate><enddate>2015</enddate><creator>Deisher, Theresa A</creator><creator>Doan, Ngoc V</creator><general>National Legal Center for the Medically Dependent and Disabled Inc</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>0-V</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>4T-</scope><scope>4U-</scope><scope>7RV</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88C</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8AM</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ALSLI</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGRYB</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>K7.</scope><scope>K9-</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>KB0</scope><scope>M0O</scope><scope>M0R</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M0T</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>S0X</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>2015</creationdate><title>Sociological Environmental Causes are Insufficient to Explain Autism Changepoints of Incidence</title><author>Deisher, Theresa A ; 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A birth year changepoint (CP) around 1988 was identified. It has been argued that the epidemic rise in autism over the past three decades is partly due to a combination of sociologic factors along with the potential contribution of thimerosal containing vaccines. Our work conducted an expanded analysis of AD changepoints in CA and U.S., and determined whether changepoints in time trends of AD rates temporally coincide with changepoints for the proposed causative sociologic and environmental factors. Birth year changepoints were identified for 1980.9 [95% CI, 1978.6-1983.1], 1988.4 [95% CI, 1987.8-1989.0] and 1995.6 [95% CI, 1994.6-1996.6] for CA and U.S. data, confirming and expanding the EPA results. AD birth year changepoints significantly precede the changepoints calculated for indicators of increased social awareness of AD. 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subjects | Autism Autistic Disorder - epidemiology Clinical Competence Communication Datasets Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Education, Special - economics FDA approval Financing, Government Humans Incidence Preservatives, Pharmaceutical - analysis Publishing Revisions Sociology State budgets Studies Thimerosal - analysis United States - epidemiology Vaccines Vaccines - chemistry |
title | Sociological Environmental Causes are Insufficient to Explain Autism Changepoints of Incidence |
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