Just How Important Are 'Hearts and Minds' Anyway? Counterinsurgency Goes to the Polls

Despite all the talk of 'hearts and minds' being the key to counterinsurgency, local public opinion is rarely studied and when it is, it often yields surprising conclusions. Through analyzing polling data from Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, this article shows that public opinion is less ma...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of strategic studies 2014-06, Vol.37 (4), p.609-636
Main Author: Cohen, Raphael S.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Afghanistan
Counterinsurgency
Hearts and Minds
Intelligence gathering
Iraq
Military strategy
Opinion Polls
Polling
Polls
Public Opinion
Public Support
Rebellions
Strategic planning
Strategic studies
Vietnam
War
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Summary:Despite all the talk of 'hearts and minds' being the key to counterinsurgency, local public opinion is rarely studied and when it is, it often yields surprising conclusions. Through analyzing polling data from Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, this article shows that public opinion is less malleable, more of an effect rather than a cause of tactical success, and a poor predictor of strategic victory. As a result, modern counterinsurgency doctrine's focus on winning popular support may need to be rethought.
ISSN:0140-2390
1743-937X
DOI:10.1080/01402390.2014.881286