Exploring the feasibility of a nationwide earthquake early warning system in Italy

• Published in: Journal of geophysical research. Solid earth 2015-04, Vol.120 (4), p.2446-2465
• Main Authors: Picozzi, M., Zollo, A., Brondi, P., Colombelli, S., Elia, L., Martino, C.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accelerometers; Aquatic birds; Computer programs; Disaster management; Early warning systems; earthquake early warning; Earthquakes; Emergency communications systems; Evolutionary; Feasibility; Feasibility studies; Geological hazards; Geophysics; Integration; Italian Accelerometric Network RAN; Lead content; Lead time; Messages; Metropolitan areas; Movement; Municipalities; PRESTo; Probabilistic methods; Probability theory; Real time; real-time earthquake risk reduction; real-time exposure reduction; Regions; Seismic activity; Seismic hazard; Seismic phenomena; Seismic zones; Shaking; Software; System effectiveness; Territory; Testing; Time measurement; Training; Warning systems; Waterfowl; Windows (intervals)
• ISSN: 2169-9313; 2169-9356
• DOI: 10.1002/2014JB011669

When accompanied by appropriate training and preparedness of a population, Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are effective and viable tools for the real‐time reduction of societal exposure to seismic events in metropolitan areas. The Italian Accelerometric Network, RAN, which consists of about 500 stations installed over all the active seismic zones, as well as many cities and strategic infrastructures in Italy, has the potential to serve as a nationwide early warning system. In this work, we present a feasibility study for a nationwide EEWS in Italy obtained by the integration of the RAN and the software platform PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo). The performance of the RAN‐PRESTo EEWS is first assessed by testing it on real strong motion recordings of 40 of the largest earthquakes that have occurred during the last 10 years in Italy. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to regions that did not experience earthquakes by considering a nationwide grid of synthetic sources capable of generating Gutenberg‐Richter sequences corresponding to the one adopted by the seismic hazard map of the Italian territory. Our results indicate that the RAN‐PRESTo EEWS could theoretically provide for higher seismic hazard areas reliable alert messages within about 5 to 10 s and maximum lead times of about 25 s. In case of large events (M > 6.5), this amount of lead time would be sufficient for taking basic protective measures (e.g., duck and cover, move away from windows or equipment) in tens to hundreds of municipalities affected by large ground shaking. Key Points The feasibility of a nationwide EEWS in Italy is for the first time assessed The analysis is extended also to regions that did not experience earthquakes Higher seismic hazard areas could benefit from lead times of about 25 s