Application of synoptic-scale anomalous winds predicted by medium-range weather forecast models on the regional heavy rainfall in China in 2010

Atmospheric winds from observations and medium-range weather forecast model predictions can be physically decomposed as daily climate wind, planetary-scale anomalous wind, and synoptic-scale anomalous wind. The 850 hPa synoptic-scale anoma- lous winds were extracted from the numerical model outputs...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science China. Earth sciences 2013-06, Vol.56 (6), p.1059-1070
Main Authors: Qian, WeiHong, Li, Jin, Shan, XiaoLong
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric circulation
Atmospheric models
Bands
China
Climatology
Convergence
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
ECMWF产品
Mathematical models
Rain
Rainbows
Rainfall
Research Paper
Weather
Weather forecasting
Wind
中国东部
中程
区域性
天气异常
应用
暴雨天气过程
预测模型
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Summary:Atmospheric winds from observations and medium-range weather forecast model predictions can be physically decomposed as daily climate wind, planetary-scale anomalous wind, and synoptic-scale anomalous wind. The 850 hPa synoptic-scale anoma- lous winds were extracted from the numerical model outputs of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） and the NCEP Global Forecast System （GFS）. The results showed that most rain bands in eastern China in 2010 were located along the anomalous convergence lines. To predict the major rain bands by these convergence lines in 2010, the accuracies of the ECMWF products were 100%, 85%, and 15% for leading 3, 6, and 9 days, while the GFS products showed 53%, 15%, and 6% accuracies, respectively. In comparison of the regional heavy rainfalls between observation and the ECMWF model prediction, the useful leading information was about 3.1 days for direct model rain prediction and 6.7 days for convergence systems predicted by ECMWF model.
ISSN:1674-7313
1869-1897
DOI:10.1007/s11430-013-4586-5