Operational Models of Infrastructure Resilience

We propose a definition of infrastructure resilience that is tied to the operation (or function) of an infrastructure as a system of interacting components and that can be objectively evaluated using quantitative models. Specifically, for any particular system, we use quantitative models of system o...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Risk analysis 2015-04, Vol.35 (4), p.562-586
Main Authors: Alderson, David L., Brown, Gerald G., Carlyle, W. Matthew
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Attacker-defender
Economic infrastructure
Infrastructure
Modelling
Operationalism
Operations research
optimization
Policy making
Quantitative analysis
resilience
Risk management
Studies
system operation
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Summary:We propose a definition of infrastructure resilience that is tied to the operation (or function) of an infrastructure as a system of interacting components and that can be objectively evaluated using quantitative models. Specifically, for any particular system, we use quantitative models of system operation to represent the decisions of an infrastructure operator who guides the behavior of the system as a whole, even in the presence of disruptions. Modeling infrastructure operation in this way makes it possible to systematically evaluate the consequences associated with the loss of infrastructure components, and leads to a precise notion of “operational resilience” that facilitates model verification, validation, and reproducible results. Using a simple example of a notional infrastructure, we demonstrate how to use these models for (1) assessing the operational resilience of an infrastructure system, (2) identifying critical vulnerabilities that threaten its continued function, and (3) advising policymakers on investments to improve resilience.
ISSN:0272-4332
1539-6924
DOI:10.1111/risa.12333