Measuring Disagreement in Qualitative Expectations

We assess how well measures of disagreement in qualitative survey expectations reflect disagreement in corresponding quantitative expectations. We consider a variety of measures, belonging to two categories: measures of dispersion in nominal and ordinal variables and measures based on the probabilit...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of forecasting 2015-08, Vol.34 (5), p.405-426
Main Authors: Mokinski, Frieder, Sheng, Xuguang (Simon), Yang, Jingyun
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Benchmarking
consumer survey
Economic analysis
Economic forecasts
Estimating techniques
Inflation
inflation forecast
Probability
Qualitative analysis
qualitative data
quantification method
Studies
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Summary:We assess how well measures of disagreement in qualitative survey expectations reflect disagreement in corresponding quantitative expectations. We consider a variety of measures, belonging to two categories: measures of dispersion in nominal and ordinal variables and measures based on the probability approach of Carlson and Parkin (Economica, 1975; 42, 123–138). Using data from two household surveys that collect both qualitative and quantitative inflation expectations, we find that the probability approaches with time‐varying categorization thresholds and either a piecewise uniform or t distribution perform best and the resulting disagreement estimates are highly correlated with the benchmark. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ISSN:0277-6693
1099-131X
DOI:10.1002/for.2340