Estimation of future mortality from pleural malignant mesothelioma in Japan based on an age-cohort model

Background Japanese consumption of asbestos increased rapidly after the 1950s and lingered at a high level while the world's consumption decreased substantially after the 1980s. Mesothelioma is due primarily to asbestos, and the number of deaths in Japan is expected to increase in the future. M...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:American journal of industrial medicine 2006-01, Vol.49 (1), p.1-7
Main Authors: Murayama, Takehiko, Takahashi, Ken, Natori, Yuji, Kurumatani, Norio
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Age Factors
age-cohort model
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
asbestos
Asbestos - toxicity
Biological and medical sciences
Cohort Studies
Europe - epidemiology
Forecasting
future mortality
Humans
Japan
Japan - epidemiology
Male
Medical sciences
mesothelioma
Mesothelioma - etiology
Mesothelioma - mortality
Middle Aged
Models, Statistical
Occupational Diseases - etiology
Occupational Diseases - mortality
Pleural Neoplasms - etiology
Pleural Neoplasms - mortality
Pneumology
Time Factors
Tumors of the respiratory system and mediastinum
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Summary:Background Japanese consumption of asbestos increased rapidly after the 1950s and lingered at a high level while the world's consumption decreased substantially after the 1980s. Mesothelioma is due primarily to asbestos, and the number of deaths in Japan is expected to increase in the future. Method We estimated the future number of pleural mesothelioma deaths among males in Japan using an age‐cohort model. Results Analyses showed that there would be about 100,000 deaths in Japan due to pleural mesothelioma in the next 40 years. Compared with the statistics in European countries, the ratio of expected death numbers to the population size is remarkably close to linear. The data‐point for Japan was slightly lower than that which could be expected from the linear relationship. Conclusions The limited availability of data may result in underestimation. Taking into consideration the consumption pattern of asbestos in recent decades, the incorporation of later cohorts will improve the estimation. Am. J. Ind. Med. 49:1–7, 2006. © 2005 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.
ISSN:0271-3586
1097-0274
DOI:10.1002/ajim.20246