Waiting for the Energy Crisis: Europe and the United States on the Eve of the first Oil Shock

• Published in: Historical social research (Köln) 2014-01, Vol.39 (4 (150)), p.70-93
• Main Author: Madureira, Nuno Luis
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adjustment; Conservation; Economic Crises; Egypt; Energy crises; Europe; Males; Market prices; Markets; Military strategy; National Energy Policies in the Transnational Energy Crises; Natural resources; Natural resources conservation; Oil companies; Oil embargoes; Oil prices; Petroleum; Prediction; Prices; United States of America; War; Weapons
• ISSN: 0172-6404
• DOI: 10.12759/hrs.39.2014.4.70-93

A global economic crisis is the most difficult kind of event to predict. This article asks a straightforward question: did anyone come close to anticipating the oil crisis of 1973/74, which represented a new type of historical sequence? Was the likelihood of an oil shock self-evident at the time? To answer this, I examine the degree of awareness in Europe and the United States of the three possible triggering factors: Egypt's disposition to start a war and enlist the support of oil-producers; the Arab interest in oil conservation and long-term income maximization; and the imbalance in the oil market and the delayed adjustment of oil prices. For each of these topics, I set out both what was expected and what was actually in the offing; the information available to Western analysts and that unknown; the communication noises and the flagrant bias. The conclusion pays tribute to three men - James Akins, Pierre Wack, and Ted Newland - who had guessed what was coming ahead, and explains why their predictions almost succeeded, while others failed.