Online accesses to medical research articles on publication predicted citations up to 15 years later

Abstract Objectives To examine whether the number of early online accesses to medical research articles predicts citations in the scientific literature over time. Study Design and Setting Cohort study of research articles published in the BMJ between January and June 1999. The number of online asses...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of clinical epidemiology 2015-12, Vol.68 (12), p.1440-1445
Main Author: Perneger, Thomas V
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biomedical Research - statistics & numerical data
Biomedical Research - trends
Citations
Cohort Studies
Confidence intervals
Epidemiology
Humans
Internal Medicine
Journal Impact Factor
Medical research
Online Systems
Online usage
Open Access Publishing - statistics & numerical data
Open Access Publishing - trends
Periodicals as Topic - statistics & numerical data
Periodicals as Topic - trends
Reproducibility of Results
Research assessment
Search engines
Social networks
Statistics as Topic
Time Factors
Variables
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Summary:Abstract Objectives To examine whether the number of early online accesses to medical research articles predicts citations in the scientific literature over time. Study Design and Setting Cohort study of research articles published in the BMJ between January and June 1999. The number of online assesses within 1 week of publication was examined in relation to citation counts in 1999–2004, 2004–2009, and 2009–2014. Results The 148 included articles were accessed on average 691 times up publication, and each was cited on average 33 times in 1999–2004, 32 times in 2004–2009, and 26 times in 2009–2014. The logarithm of accesses predicted the logarithm of citations for all three subsequent periods, but the association weakened over time (correlation with citations in 1999–2004: 0.54, 2004–2009: 0.49, 2009–2014: 0.39; all P  
ISSN:0895-4356
1878-5921
DOI:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2015.01.024