Coastal Area Impact and Vulnerability Assessment: The Point of View of a Morphodynamic Modeller

• Published in: Journal of coastal research 1999-06, Vol.15 (3), p.701-716
• Main Authors: Michele Capobianco, Huib J. De Vriend, Nicholls, Robert J., Marcel J. E. Stive
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Areal geology. Maps; Climate change; Coastal ecology; Coastal management; Coasts; Cognitive models; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Ecological modeling; Exact sciences and technology; Geologic maps, cartography; Marine and continental quaternary; Modeling; River deltas; Sea level; Sea level rise; Surficial geology
• ISSN: 0749-0208; 1551-5036

Long-term (>10 years) prediction of morphological behaviour in the coastal zone in response to both direct and indirect human interference and projected climatic change is an increasingly important issue in coastal management. As our recognition of the possible impacts increases, so does the need for more comprehensive model-based approaches to better assess long term impacts and plan precautionary interventions. Such models need to be integrated embracing both the morphological subsystem and the ecological subsystem, and their interactions in the coastal zone. By explicitly considering the "need for integration between different disciplines", this paper briefly describes possible approaches to modelling long-term dynamics of coastal morphology, particularly the modelling of coastal evolution in the typical situation: limited data and limited process knowledge, and further complicated by the variability of the coastal space cover and coastal space use. It is argued that progress in long-term modelling of coastal morphology will be further stimulated by adopting a conceptual framework which can embrace all the data, information, knowledge and experience concerning the coastal system of interest, whatever form they have. The objective can be accomplished by using a top-down modelling conceptual approach which helps to formalise knowledge and experience concerning the coastal area and integrate all the available data, information and models, including qualitative understanding. Qualitative modelling, which defines tendencies of evolution, offers an important tool for this goal. The overall approach lends itself to being structured into a model-based Decision Support System (DSS), coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology which represent the state-of-the-art of decision support tools in the environmental field. /// La previsione dell'evoluzione morfologica a lungo termine, a seguito sia di influenze antropiche dirette ed indirette che come conseguenza di possibili cambiamenti climatici, sta assumendo un'importanza crescente neH'ambito della gestione costiera. All'aumentare della consapevolezza dei possibili impatti e meccanismi di impatto,si assiste ad un parallelo aumento della necessità di ricorrere a strumenti modellistici a supporto della valutazione degli impatti di lungo termine ed a supporto della pianificazione di interventi secondo l'approccio "precauzionale". E' altresi evidente che tali modelli richiedano di tenere conto sia del so