Local trend disparities of European minimum and maximum temperature extremes

Ecosystems and societies are highly vulnerable to extreme temperatures and to changes in the range of temperatures at local scales. Here I will show how trends in warm and cold extremes have evolved over the last six decades in Europe on local scales. Comparing the slopes of two extreme quantiles de...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2015-08, Vol.42 (15), p.6479-6484
Main Author: Franzke, Christian L. E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate
Climate change
Cold
Ecosystems
Evolution
Extreme cold
Extreme values
Geophysics
Global warming
Locations (working)
quantile regression
Quantiles
Slope
Slopes
Temperature
Temperature effects
Temperature extremes
Temperature range
Trends
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Summary:Ecosystems and societies are highly vulnerable to extreme temperatures and to changes in the range of temperatures at local scales. Here I will show how trends in warm and cold extremes have evolved over the last six decades in Europe on local scales. Comparing the slopes of two extreme quantiles demonstrates that there are significant disparities in trends of cold and warm temperature extremes at many locations in Europe. At some locations the range of extreme cold and hot temperatures increases, while at other locations it decreases. These results suggest that at some locations both warm and cold extremes intensify which seems to be contradictory to the prevailing view of global warming in which both cold and warm temperatures are expected to increase. Key Points Temperature extremes show spatial variations of increasing and decreasing trends Trends in extremes are statistically significant Results have implications for adaptation to future climate conditions
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1002/2015GL065011