Modeling the Effect of Water Activity, pH, and Temperature on the Probability of Enterotoxin A Production by Staphylococcus aureus

The objectives of this study were to develop a probability model of Staphylococcus aureus enterotoxin A (SEA) production as affected by water activity (a(w)), pH, and temperature in broth and assess its applicability for milk. The probability of SEA production was assessed in tryptic soy broth using...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of food protection 2016-01, Vol.79 (1), p.148-152
Main Authors: Ding, Tian, Yu, Yan-Yan, Hwang, Cheng-An, Dong, Qing-Li, Chen, Shi-Guo, Ye, Xing-Qian, Liu, Dong-Hong
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Cattle
Enterotoxins - biosynthesis
Enterotoxins - chemistry
Epidemics
Food contamination & poisoning
Food products
Food safety
Growth models
Logistic Models
Milk
Milk - microbiology
Pathogens
Population
Probability
Regression analysis
Staphylococcus aureus - chemistry
Staphylococcus aureus - metabolism
Staphylococcus infections
Temperature
Toxins
Water - analysis
Water - metabolism
Water - physiology
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Summary:The objectives of this study were to develop a probability model of Staphylococcus aureus enterotoxin A (SEA) production as affected by water activity (a(w)), pH, and temperature in broth and assess its applicability for milk. The probability of SEA production was assessed in tryptic soy broth using 24 combinations of a(w) (0.86 to 0.99), pH (5.0 to 7.0), and storage temperature (10 to 30°C). The observed probabilities were fitted with a logistic regression to develop a probability model. The model had a concordant value of 97.5% and concordant index of 0.98, indicating that the model satisfactorily describes the probability of SEA production. The model showed that a(w), pH, and temperature were significant factors affecting the probability of toxin production. The model predictions were in good agreement with the observed values obtained from milk. The model may help manufacturers in selecting product pH and a(w) and storage temperatures to prevent SEA production.
ISSN:0362-028X
1944-9097
DOI:10.4315/0362-028x.jfp-15-161