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Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order): Predicting Duration Dynamics in a Unified Framework
There are three fundamental duration dynamics of civil conflicts: time until conflict onset, conflict duration, and time until conflict recurrence. Theoretical and empirical models of war usually focus on one or at most two aspects of these three important duration dynamics. We present a new split-p...
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| Published in: | Political science research and methods 2015-09, Vol.3 (3), p.515-541 |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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| cited_by | cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c303t-20d872f6c8fe55ef9d60c3e0b57aff3fad383c188cc0676923ffea761dde4803 |
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| cites | cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c303t-20d872f6c8fe55ef9d60c3e0b57aff3fad383c188cc0676923ffea761dde4803 |
| container_end_page | 541 |
| container_issue | 3 |
| container_start_page | 515 |
| container_title | Political science research and methods |
| container_volume | 3 |
| creator | Chiba, Daina Metternich, Nils W. Ward, Michael D. |
| description | There are three fundamental duration dynamics of civil conflicts: time until
conflict onset, conflict duration, and time until conflict recurrence.
Theoretical and empirical models of war usually focus on one or at most two
aspects of these three important duration dynamics. We present a new
split-population seemingly unrelated duration estimator that treats
pre-conflict duration, conflict duration, and post-conflict duration as
interdependent processes thus permitting improved predictions about the
onset, duration, and recurrence of civil conflict. Our findings provide
support for the more fundamental idea that prediction is dependent on a good
approximation of the theoretically implied underlying data-generating
process. In addition, we account for the fact that some countries might
never experience these duration dynamics or become immune after experiencing
them in the past. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1017/psrm.2014.46 |
| format | article |
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conflict onset, conflict duration, and time until conflict recurrence.
Theoretical and empirical models of war usually focus on one or at most two
aspects of these three important duration dynamics. We present a new
split-population seemingly unrelated duration estimator that treats
pre-conflict duration, conflict duration, and post-conflict duration as
interdependent processes thus permitting improved predictions about the
onset, duration, and recurrence of civil conflict. Our findings provide
support for the more fundamental idea that prediction is dependent on a good
approximation of the theoretically implied underlying data-generating
process. In addition, we account for the fact that some countries might
never experience these duration dynamics or become immune after experiencing
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conflict onset, conflict duration, and time until conflict recurrence.
Theoretical and empirical models of war usually focus on one or at most two
aspects of these three important duration dynamics. We present a new
split-population seemingly unrelated duration estimator that treats
pre-conflict duration, conflict duration, and post-conflict duration as
interdependent processes thus permitting improved predictions about the
onset, duration, and recurrence of civil conflict. Our findings provide
support for the more fundamental idea that prediction is dependent on a good
approximation of the theoretically implied underlying data-generating
process. In addition, we account for the fact that some countries might
never experience these duration dynamics or become immune after experiencing
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conflict onset, conflict duration, and time until conflict recurrence.
Theoretical and empirical models of war usually focus on one or at most two
aspects of these three important duration dynamics. We present a new
split-population seemingly unrelated duration estimator that treats
pre-conflict duration, conflict duration, and post-conflict duration as
interdependent processes thus permitting improved predictions about the
onset, duration, and recurrence of civil conflict. Our findings provide
support for the more fundamental idea that prediction is dependent on a good
approximation of the theoretically implied underlying data-generating
process. In addition, we account for the fact that some countries might
never experience these duration dynamics or become immune after experiencing
them in the past.</abstract><cop>Cambridge, UK</cop><pub>Cambridge University Press</pub><doi>10.1017/psrm.2014.46</doi><tpages>27</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 2049-8470 |
| ispartof | Political science research and methods, 2015-09, Vol.3 (3), p.515-541 |
| issn | 2049-8470 2049-8489 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_1761665308 |
| source | Social Science Premium Collection; Politics Collection; Worldwide Political Science Abstracts; Cambridge University Press |
| subjects | Bargaining Civil war Conflict Conflict resolution International organizations Original Articles Political science Politics Prediction Predictions Scholars War |
| title | Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order): Predicting Duration Dynamics in a Unified Framework |
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