Changes in precipitation and temperature in Xiangjiang River Basin, China

Global warming brings a huge challenge to society and human being. Understanding historic and future potential climate change will be beneficial to regional crop, forest, and water management. This study aims to analyze the precipitation and temperature changes in the historic period and future peri...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Theoretical and applied climatology 2016-02, Vol.123 (3-4), p.859-871
Main Authors: Ma, Chong, Pan, Suli, Wang, Guoqing, Liao, Yufang, Xu, Yue-Ping
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Aquatic Pollution
atmospheric precipitation
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Atmospheric Sciences
basins
Climate change
Climate models
Climatology
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Extreme weather
forests
Freshwater
Global climate
Global warming
humans
Original Paper
Precipitation
River basins
Rivers
society
Studies
Temperature
time series analysis
Waste Water Technology
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
watersheds
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Summary:Global warming brings a huge challenge to society and human being. Understanding historic and future potential climate change will be beneficial to regional crop, forest, and water management. This study aims to analyze the precipitation and temperature changes in the historic period and future period 2021–2050 in the Xiangjiang River Basin, China. The Mann–Kendall rank test for trend and change point analysis was used to analyze the changes in trend and magnitude based on historic precipitation and temperature time series. Four global climate models (GCMs) and a statistical downscaling approach, LARS-WG, were used to estimate future precipitation and temperature under RCP4.5. The results show that annual precipitation in the basin is increasing, although not significant, and will probably continue to increase in the future on the basis of ensemble projections of four GCMs. Temperature is increasing in a significant way and all GCMs projected continuous temperature increase in the future. There will be more extreme events in the future, including both extreme precipitation and temperature.
ISSN:0177-798X
1434-4483
DOI:10.1007/s00704-015-1386-1