Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear models

The objectives were to analyze lung cancer mortality trends in Chile from 1990 to 2009, and to project the rates six years forward. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health. To obtain mortality rates, population projections were used, based on the 2002 National Ce...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Cadernos de saúde pública 2015-09, Vol.31 (9), p.1975-1982
Main Authors: Torres-Avilés, Francisco, Moraga, Tomás, Núñez, Loreto, Icaza, Gloria
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayes Theorem
Chile - epidemiology
Female
Humans
Lung Neoplasms - mortality
Male
Models, Theoretical
Mortality - trends
Prevalence
Sex Distribution
Sex Factors
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Summary:The objectives were to analyze lung cancer mortality trends in Chile from 1990 to 2009, and to project the rates six years forward. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health. To obtain mortality rates, population projections were used, based on the 2002 National Census. Rates were adjusted using the world standard population as reference. Bayesian dynamic linear models were fitted to estimate trends from 1990 to 2009 and to obtain projections for 2010-2015. During the period under study, there was a 19.9% reduction in the lung cancer mortality rate in men. In women, there was increase of 28.4%. The second-order model showed a better fit for men, and the first-order model a better fit for women. Between 2010 and 2015 the downward trend continued in men, while a trend to stabilization was projected for lung cancer mortality in women in Chile. This analytical approach could be useful implement surveillance systems for chronic non-communicable disease and to evaluate preventive strategies.
ISSN:1678-4464
DOI:10.1590/0102-311X00194313