Historical and future quantification of terrestrial carbon sequestration from a Greenhouse-Gas-Value perspective

• Published in: Global environmental change 2015-05, Vol.32, p.153-164
• Main Authors: Bayer, Anita D., Pugh, Thomas A.M., Krause, Andreas, Arneth, Almut
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air pollution; Carbon capture and storage; Carbon dioxide; Carbon sequestration; Climate; Climate regulation; Control; Ecosystem services; Ecosystems; Greenhouse Gas Value; Land use; Land-use change; LPJ-GUESS; Trends
• ISSN: 0959-3780; 1872-9495
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.004

•Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Value (GHGV) as indicator of carbon sequestration.•Calculation of GHGV on global scale and evolution over time.•Coupling between GHGV and environmental drivers climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use.•Natural disturbance is a crucial factor for realistic GHGV assessments.•GHGV assessments are appropriate basis to value carbon sequestration. Terrestrial ecosystems provide a range of important services to humans, including global and regional climate regulation. These services arise from natural ecosystem functioning as governed by drivers such as climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratio, and land-use change. From the perspective of carbon sequestration, numerous studies have assessed trends and projections of the past and future terrestrial carbon cycle, but links to the ecosystem service concept have been hindered by the lack of appropriate quantitative service metrics. The recently introduced concept of the Greenhouse Gas Value (GHGV) accounts for the land-atmosphere exchanges of multiple greenhouse gases by taking into consideration the associated ecosystem pool sizes, annual exchange fluxes and probable effects of natural disturbance in a time-sensitive manner. We use here GHGV as an indicator for the carbon sequestration aspects of the climate regulation ecosystem service, and quantify it at global scale using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic global vegetation model. The response of ecosystem dynamics and ecosystem state variables to trends in climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and land use simulated by LPJ-GUESS are used to calculate the contribution of carbon dioxide to GHGV. We evaluate global variations in GHGV over historical periods and for future scenarios (1850–2100) on a biome basis following a high and a low emission scenario. GHGV is found to vary substantially depending on the biogeochemical processes represented in LPJ-GUESS (e.g. carbon–nitrogen coupling, representation of land use). The consideration of disturbance events that occur as part of an ecosystem's natural dynamics is crucial for realistic GHGV assessments; their omission results in unrealistically high GHGV. By considering the biome-specific response to current climate and land use, and their projections for the future, we highlight the importance of all forest biomes for maintaining and increasing biogeochemical carbon sequestration. Under future climate and carbon dioxide levels following a high emission scenario GHGV values are projected to