Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact

• Published in: Technological forecasting & social change 2013-11, Vol.80 (9), p.1756-1774
• Main Authors: Bañuls, Victor A., Turoff, Murray, Hiltz, Starr Roxanne
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bombs; CIA-ISM; Collaboration; Consistency; Contingency planning; Cooperation; Delphi; Delphi method; Dirty bomb; Emergencies; Emergency management; Emergency planning; Emergency plans; Emergency preparedness; Estimates; Foresight; Group modeling; Impact analysis; Management; Mathematical models; Scenario; Studies; Technological forecasting; Training
• ISSN: 0040-1625; 1873-5509
• DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.11.007

In this paper we analyze how to apply cross-impact modeling for developing collaborative scenarios in Emergency Preparedness. Scenarios can enhance the understanding of emergency teams about the factors which are involved in the definition of an emergency plan and how different actors participate in it. The version of Cross-Impact Analysis described aims at contributing to this goal through allowing the collaborative development of scenarios out of large event sets. This ultimately reduces the complexity for estimating a working model. In order to illustrate this research effort hypothetical results of a dirty bomb attack scenario exercise are presented, along with the final estimates of relationships based on four rounds of individual estimates followed by discussion of differences in the perceived relationships, in order to achieve a “consensus” model. The purpose of this exercise is to demonstrate the ability of a group to create a working model of the scenario that may be used to examine the consequences of various assumptions about preparedness, plans, and the actions taken during the crisis situation. The method may be used as either a planning tool and/or a training tool. We discuss the process for collecting inputs from a collaborative group and how to improve the consistency of the group inputs in a Delphi-like feedback process. Suggestions for improving details of the wording of items in order to minimize misunderstandings and miscommunication are included, along with suggestions for future extensions to this research. ► We propose cross-impact modeling for developing collaborative scenarios. ► We apply our proposal to a dirty bomb attack scenario exercise. ► We discuss the process for collecting inputs from a collaborative group. ► We demonstrate how to create a consistent working model for emergency situations. ► We demonstrate how to explore different courses of action.