Predictive analysis of landslide susceptibility under climate change conditions — A study on the Chingshui River Watershed of Taiwan

Among the most critical issues, climatic abnormalities caused by global warming also affect Taiwan significantly for the past decade. The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, in which concentrated and intensive rainfalls generally cause geohazards including landslides and debris flows. B...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Engineering geology 2015-06, Vol.192, p.46-62
Main Authors: Shou, Keh-Jian, Yang, Chih-Ming
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate change
Estimates
Freshwater
Geohazards
Global circulation model
Landslide susceptibility analysis
Landslides
Logistic regression
Rainfall
Rainfall frequency analysis
Rainfall induced landslide
Remediation
Rivers
Watersheds
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Summary:Among the most critical issues, climatic abnormalities caused by global warming also affect Taiwan significantly for the past decade. The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, in which concentrated and intensive rainfalls generally cause geohazards including landslides and debris flows. Based on the rainfall data, this study employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to understand the temporal rainfall trends, distributions, and intensities in the Chingshui River watershed, a major watershed in central Taiwan. Rainfall estimates from the rainfall frequency analysis and AGCM were used in the susceptibility model to produce landslide susceptibility maps for various rainfall scenarios, including abnormal climate conditions. These results can be used for hazard remediation, mitigation, and prevention plans for the Chingshui River watershed. •Rainfall was predicted by rainfall frequency analysis.•Rainfall was predicted by the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM).•The Chingshui River watershed, a major watershed in central Taiwan, was studied.•Landslide susceptibility was obtained for various predictive rainfall scenarios.•The predictive landslide susceptibility maps can be used for hazard mitigation.
ISSN:0013-7952
1872-6917
DOI:10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.03.012