Empirical validation of a real options theory based method for optimizing evacuation decisions within chemical plants

This article empirically assesses and validates a methodology to make evacuation decisions in case of major fire accidents in chemical clusters. In this paper, a number of empirical results are presented, processed and discussed with respect to the implications and management of evacuation decisions...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of hazardous materials 2011-02, Vol.186 (1), p.779-787
Main Authors: Reniers, G.L.L., Audenaert, A., Pauwels, N., Soudan, K.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
accidents
Applied sciences
business enterprises
Chemical Industry - organization & administration
Clusters
Decision Making, Organizational
Decisions
Economics
Empirical analysis
Empirical Research
Empirical validation
Evacuation
Exact sciences and technology
Fire evacuation management
Fires
Intervention decisions
labor force
Models, Theoretical
Optimization
Pollution
Precautionary evacuation management
Shutdowns
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Summary:This article empirically assesses and validates a methodology to make evacuation decisions in case of major fire accidents in chemical clusters. In this paper, a number of empirical results are presented, processed and discussed with respect to the implications and management of evacuation decisions in chemical companies. It has been shown in this article that in realistic industrial settings, suboptimal interventions may result in case the prospect to obtain additional information at later stages of the decision process is ignored. Empirical results also show that implications of interventions, as well as the required time and workforce to complete particular shutdown activities, may be very different from one company to another. Therefore, to be optimal from an economic viewpoint, it is essential that precautionary evacuation decisions are tailor-made per company.
ISSN:0304-3894
1873-3336
DOI:10.1016/j.jhazmat.2010.11.061