Forecasting technology success based on patent data

A novel method for forecasting technology success based on patent data is proposed. Four criteria, technology life cycle, diffusion speed, patent power, and expansion potential are considered for technology forecasting. Patent power and expansion potential are considered as technology scope indicato...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Technological forecasting & social change 2015-07, Vol.96, p.202-214
Main Authors: Altuntas, Serkan, Dereli, Turkay, Kusiak, Andrew
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algorithms
Condorcet method
Criteria
Diffusion rate
Flash memory (computers)
Forecasting
Investments
Patent analysis
Personal digital assistants
Studies
Success factors
Technological planning
Technology diffusion
Technology forecasting
Technology life cycle
Technology scope
Thin films
Transistors
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Summary:A novel method for forecasting technology success based on patent data is proposed. Four criteria, technology life cycle, diffusion speed, patent power, and expansion potential are considered for technology forecasting. Patent power and expansion potential are considered as technology scope indicators. A data fusion algorithm is applied to combine the results obtained from different criteria. The usefulness and potential of the proposed forecasting approach has been demonstrated using all U.S. patents related to three technologies, namely thin film transistor-liquid crystal display, flash memory system, and personal digital assistant. The results obtained from these patents demonstrate that the personal digital assistant technology is preferred over other technologies. Investments in thin film transistor liquid-crystal display and flash memory system technologies have equal priority. [Display omitted] •A novel method for forecasting technology success based on patent data is proposed.•The proposed approach is applied on TFT-LCD, flash memory system, and PDA technologies.•PDA technology preferred over investments in the other technologies.•TFT-LCD and flash memory system technologies have equal priority.
ISSN:0040-1625
1873-5509
DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2015.03.011