SIMULATION OF CLIMATE-CHANGE EFFECTS ON RIPARIAN VEGETATION IN THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER, MICHIGAN

Global climate-change models (GCMs) predict that the midwest USA will be drier and warmer as a result of global climate change. Other studies suggest that climate change has already started in the Lake Michigan region. This study uses climate predictions from GCMs and projections of historical clima...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Wetlands (Wilmington, N.C.) N.C.), 2000-09, Vol.20 (3), p.538-547
Main Author: Primack, Avram G. B.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Acer
Alnus
Carpinus
Climate change
Climate effects
Climate models
Climate prediction
Discharge
Fraxinus
Freshwater
Global climate
global climate-change
Habitat corridors
Michigan
Riparian vegetation
Rivers
Stream discharge
Tsuga
USA, Michigan
Vegetation
Viburnum
Citations: Items that this one cites
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Global climate-change models (GCMs) predict that the midwest USA will be drier and warmer as a result of global climate change. Other studies suggest that climate change has already started in the Lake Michigan region. This study uses climate predictions from GCMs and projections of historical climate-change trends to examine the potential effects of climate change on riparian vegetation along the Pere Marquette River in west central Michigan. A model of stream discharge as a function of temperature and precipitation was used to estimate the percent of time that each of 25 plots would be inundated at a field site in the riparian corridor on the river. Four vegetation classes were identified at the field site (Alnus, Open-Viburnum, Fraxinus-Carpinus, and Acer-Tsuga). The stream discharge model was used to calculate the percent of time each plot was inundated at the field site under the different climate scenarios and to predict the distribution of vegetation classes that would be present under climate-change conditions. The results suggest that the areal extent of vegetation classes at the field site may change by up to 27%.
ISSN:0277-5212
1943-6246
DOI:10.1672/0277-5212(2000)020<0538:SOCEOR>2.0.CO;2