A cellular automaton model for the effects of population movement and vaccination on epidemic propagation

• Published in: Ecological modelling 2000-09, Vol.133 (3), p.209-223
• Main Authors: Sirakoulis, G.Ch, Karafyllidis, I, Thanailakis, A
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Biological and medical sciences; Cellular automata; Epidemics; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects. Techniques; Methods and techniques (sampling, tagging, trapping, modelling...); Modelling; Population dynamics; Vaccination
• ISSN: 0304-3800; 1872-7026
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3800(00)00294-5

A cellular automaton model for the effects of population movement and vaccination on epidemic propagation is presented. Each cellular automaton cell represents a part of the total population that may be found in one of three states: infected, immunized and susceptible. As parts of the population move randomly in the cellular automaton lattice, the disease spreads. We study the effect of two population movement parameters on the epidemic propagation: the distance of movement and the percentage of the population that moves. Furthermore, the model is extended to include the effect of the vaccination of some parts of the population on epidemic propagation. The model establishes the acceleration of the epidemic propagation because of the increment, of the percentage of the moving population, or of the maximum distance of population movement. On the contrary, the effect of population vaccination reduces the epidemic propagation. The proposed model can serve as a basis for the development of algorithms to simulate real epidemics based on real data.