Loading…

Modelling the feedbacks between mass balance, ice flow and debris transport to predict the response to climate change of debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya

Many Himalayan glaciers are characterised in their lower reaches by a rock debris layer. This debris insulates the glacier surface from atmospheric warming and complicates the response to climate change compared to glaciers with clean-ice surfaces. Debris-covered glaciers can persist well below the...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Earth and planetary science letters 2015-11, Vol.430, p.427-438
Main Authors: Rowan, Ann V., Egholm, David L., Quincey, Duncan J., Glasser, Neil F.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
cited_by cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a433t-7e53ad6e16fa3018a932fc317c7686f75a2ee73cd5e0c587c9fec6e7963301123
cites cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a433t-7e53ad6e16fa3018a932fc317c7686f75a2ee73cd5e0c587c9fec6e7963301123
container_end_page 438
container_issue
container_start_page 427
container_title Earth and planetary science letters
container_volume 430
creator Rowan, Ann V.
Egholm, David L.
Quincey, Duncan J.
Glasser, Neil F.
description Many Himalayan glaciers are characterised in their lower reaches by a rock debris layer. This debris insulates the glacier surface from atmospheric warming and complicates the response to climate change compared to glaciers with clean-ice surfaces. Debris-covered glaciers can persist well below the altitude that would be sustainable for clean-ice glaciers, resulting in much longer timescales of mass loss and meltwater production. The properties and evolution of supraglacial debris present a considerable challenge to understanding future glacier change. Existing approaches to predicting variations in glacier volume and meltwater production rely on numerical models that represent the processes governing glaciers with clean-ice surfaces, and yield conflicting results. We developed a numerical model that couples the flow of ice and debris and includes important feedbacks between debris accumulation and glacier mass balance. To investigate the impact of debris transport on the response of a glacier to recent and future climate change, we applied this model to a large debris-covered Himalayan glacier—Khumbu Glacier in Nepal. Our results demonstrate that supraglacial debris prolongs the response of the glacier to warming and causes lowering of the glacier surface in situ, concealing the magnitude of mass loss when compared with estimates based on glacierised area. Since the Little Ice Age, Khumbu Glacier has lost 34% of its volume while its area has reduced by only 6%. We predict a decrease in glacier volume of 8–10% by AD2100, accompanied by dynamic and physical detachment of the debris-covered tongue from the active glacier within the next 150 yr. This detachment will accelerate rates of glacier decay, and similar changes are likely for other debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya. •Debris-covered glaciers show a differing response to climate change to clean-ice glaciers.•Many glaciers in the Himalaya are debris-covered, particularly in the Everest region.•We present the first dynamic model of debris transport and feedbacks with mass balance.•Debris-covered Khumbu Glacier in Nepal will lose 8–10% volume by AD2100.•The glacier tongue will detach from the active glacier and accelerate glacier decay.
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.epsl.2015.09.004
format article
fullrecord <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_1777996987</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><els_id>S0012821X15005713</els_id><sourcerecordid>1753472988</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-a433t-7e53ad6e16fa3018a932fc317c7686f75a2ee73cd5e0c587c9fec6e7963301123</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqNkcFuVCEUhonRxLHtC3TF0oX3Cpe5cEncmMZakxo3NemOnIFzp4wMXIG26dv4qDKdro0rwsn3neT8PyHnnPWccflx1-NSQj8wPvZM94ytX5EVF9PYMS5uX5MVY3zopoHfviXvStkxxuQo9Yr8-Z4chuDjltY7pDOi24D9VegG6yNipHso7QMBosUP1NvGhPRIITrqcJN9oTVDLEvKldZEl4zO2_q8LGMbx4KHuQ1-DxWpvYO4RZrmF7uz6QGbQ7cBrMdcqI_P8lXjAzzBKXkzQyh49vKekJ-XX24urrrrH1-_XXy-7mAtRO0UjgKcRC5nEIxPoMUwW8GVVXKSsxphQFTCuhGZHSdl9YxWotJSNJwP4oS8P-5dcvp9j6WavS-2RQMR030xXCmltdST-g90FGs16Glq6HBEbU6lZJzNktth-clwZg7NmZ05NGcOzRmmTWuuSZ-OErZ7H1ooprRoWv7OZ7TVuOT_pf8Fnyikkw</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>1753472988</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Modelling the feedbacks between mass balance, ice flow and debris transport to predict the response to climate change of debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya</title><source>ScienceDirect Freedom Collection</source><creator>Rowan, Ann V. ; Egholm, David L. ; Quincey, Duncan J. ; Glasser, Neil F.</creator><creatorcontrib>Rowan, Ann V. ; Egholm, David L. ; Quincey, Duncan J. ; Glasser, Neil F.</creatorcontrib><description>Many Himalayan glaciers are characterised in their lower reaches by a rock debris layer. This debris insulates the glacier surface from atmospheric warming and complicates the response to climate change compared to glaciers with clean-ice surfaces. Debris-covered glaciers can persist well below the altitude that would be sustainable for clean-ice glaciers, resulting in much longer timescales of mass loss and meltwater production. The properties and evolution of supraglacial debris present a considerable challenge to understanding future glacier change. Existing approaches to predicting variations in glacier volume and meltwater production rely on numerical models that represent the processes governing glaciers with clean-ice surfaces, and yield conflicting results. We developed a numerical model that couples the flow of ice and debris and includes important feedbacks between debris accumulation and glacier mass balance. To investigate the impact of debris transport on the response of a glacier to recent and future climate change, we applied this model to a large debris-covered Himalayan glacier—Khumbu Glacier in Nepal. Our results demonstrate that supraglacial debris prolongs the response of the glacier to warming and causes lowering of the glacier surface in situ, concealing the magnitude of mass loss when compared with estimates based on glacierised area. Since the Little Ice Age, Khumbu Glacier has lost 34% of its volume while its area has reduced by only 6%. We predict a decrease in glacier volume of 8–10% by AD2100, accompanied by dynamic and physical detachment of the debris-covered tongue from the active glacier within the next 150 yr. This detachment will accelerate rates of glacier decay, and similar changes are likely for other debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya. •Debris-covered glaciers show a differing response to climate change to clean-ice glaciers.•Many glaciers in the Himalaya are debris-covered, particularly in the Everest region.•We present the first dynamic model of debris transport and feedbacks with mass balance.•Debris-covered Khumbu Glacier in Nepal will lose 8–10% volume by AD2100.•The glacier tongue will detach from the active glacier and accelerate glacier decay.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0012-821X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1385-013X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2015.09.004</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Elsevier B.V</publisher><subject>Balancing ; Cleaning ; Climate change ; Debris ; Detachment ; Everest region ; Feedback ; glacier dynamics ; glacier modelling ; Glaciers ; Mathematical models ; supraglacial debris</subject><ispartof>Earth and planetary science letters, 2015-11, Vol.430, p.427-438</ispartof><rights>2015 Elsevier B.V.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a433t-7e53ad6e16fa3018a932fc317c7686f75a2ee73cd5e0c587c9fec6e7963301123</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a433t-7e53ad6e16fa3018a932fc317c7686f75a2ee73cd5e0c587c9fec6e7963301123</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-3715-5554</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27924,27925</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Rowan, Ann V.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Egholm, David L.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Quincey, Duncan J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Glasser, Neil F.</creatorcontrib><title>Modelling the feedbacks between mass balance, ice flow and debris transport to predict the response to climate change of debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya</title><title>Earth and planetary science letters</title><description>Many Himalayan glaciers are characterised in their lower reaches by a rock debris layer. This debris insulates the glacier surface from atmospheric warming and complicates the response to climate change compared to glaciers with clean-ice surfaces. Debris-covered glaciers can persist well below the altitude that would be sustainable for clean-ice glaciers, resulting in much longer timescales of mass loss and meltwater production. The properties and evolution of supraglacial debris present a considerable challenge to understanding future glacier change. Existing approaches to predicting variations in glacier volume and meltwater production rely on numerical models that represent the processes governing glaciers with clean-ice surfaces, and yield conflicting results. We developed a numerical model that couples the flow of ice and debris and includes important feedbacks between debris accumulation and glacier mass balance. To investigate the impact of debris transport on the response of a glacier to recent and future climate change, we applied this model to a large debris-covered Himalayan glacier—Khumbu Glacier in Nepal. Our results demonstrate that supraglacial debris prolongs the response of the glacier to warming and causes lowering of the glacier surface in situ, concealing the magnitude of mass loss when compared with estimates based on glacierised area. Since the Little Ice Age, Khumbu Glacier has lost 34% of its volume while its area has reduced by only 6%. We predict a decrease in glacier volume of 8–10% by AD2100, accompanied by dynamic and physical detachment of the debris-covered tongue from the active glacier within the next 150 yr. This detachment will accelerate rates of glacier decay, and similar changes are likely for other debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya. •Debris-covered glaciers show a differing response to climate change to clean-ice glaciers.•Many glaciers in the Himalaya are debris-covered, particularly in the Everest region.•We present the first dynamic model of debris transport and feedbacks with mass balance.•Debris-covered Khumbu Glacier in Nepal will lose 8–10% volume by AD2100.•The glacier tongue will detach from the active glacier and accelerate glacier decay.</description><subject>Balancing</subject><subject>Cleaning</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Debris</subject><subject>Detachment</subject><subject>Everest region</subject><subject>Feedback</subject><subject>glacier dynamics</subject><subject>glacier modelling</subject><subject>Glaciers</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>supraglacial debris</subject><issn>0012-821X</issn><issn>1385-013X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2015</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqNkcFuVCEUhonRxLHtC3TF0oX3Cpe5cEncmMZakxo3NemOnIFzp4wMXIG26dv4qDKdro0rwsn3neT8PyHnnPWccflx1-NSQj8wPvZM94ytX5EVF9PYMS5uX5MVY3zopoHfviXvStkxxuQo9Yr8-Z4chuDjltY7pDOi24D9VegG6yNipHso7QMBosUP1NvGhPRIITrqcJN9oTVDLEvKldZEl4zO2_q8LGMbx4KHuQ1-DxWpvYO4RZrmF7uz6QGbQ7cBrMdcqI_P8lXjAzzBKXkzQyh49vKekJ-XX24urrrrH1-_XXy-7mAtRO0UjgKcRC5nEIxPoMUwW8GVVXKSsxphQFTCuhGZHSdl9YxWotJSNJwP4oS8P-5dcvp9j6WavS-2RQMR030xXCmltdST-g90FGs16Glq6HBEbU6lZJzNktth-clwZg7NmZ05NGcOzRmmTWuuSZ-OErZ7H1ooprRoWv7OZ7TVuOT_pf8Fnyikkw</recordid><startdate>20151115</startdate><enddate>20151115</enddate><creator>Rowan, Ann V.</creator><creator>Egholm, David L.</creator><creator>Quincey, Duncan J.</creator><creator>Glasser, Neil F.</creator><general>Elsevier B.V</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7U6</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>L7M</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3715-5554</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20151115</creationdate><title>Modelling the feedbacks between mass balance, ice flow and debris transport to predict the response to climate change of debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya</title><author>Rowan, Ann V. ; Egholm, David L. ; Quincey, Duncan J. ; Glasser, Neil F.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a433t-7e53ad6e16fa3018a932fc317c7686f75a2ee73cd5e0c587c9fec6e7963301123</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2015</creationdate><topic>Balancing</topic><topic>Cleaning</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Debris</topic><topic>Detachment</topic><topic>Everest region</topic><topic>Feedback</topic><topic>glacier dynamics</topic><topic>glacier modelling</topic><topic>Glaciers</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>supraglacial debris</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Rowan, Ann V.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Egholm, David L.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Quincey, Duncan J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Glasser, Neil F.</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological &amp; Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Sustainability Science Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>Meteorological &amp; Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><jtitle>Earth and planetary science letters</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Rowan, Ann V.</au><au>Egholm, David L.</au><au>Quincey, Duncan J.</au><au>Glasser, Neil F.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Modelling the feedbacks between mass balance, ice flow and debris transport to predict the response to climate change of debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya</atitle><jtitle>Earth and planetary science letters</jtitle><date>2015-11-15</date><risdate>2015</risdate><volume>430</volume><spage>427</spage><epage>438</epage><pages>427-438</pages><issn>0012-821X</issn><eissn>1385-013X</eissn><abstract>Many Himalayan glaciers are characterised in their lower reaches by a rock debris layer. This debris insulates the glacier surface from atmospheric warming and complicates the response to climate change compared to glaciers with clean-ice surfaces. Debris-covered glaciers can persist well below the altitude that would be sustainable for clean-ice glaciers, resulting in much longer timescales of mass loss and meltwater production. The properties and evolution of supraglacial debris present a considerable challenge to understanding future glacier change. Existing approaches to predicting variations in glacier volume and meltwater production rely on numerical models that represent the processes governing glaciers with clean-ice surfaces, and yield conflicting results. We developed a numerical model that couples the flow of ice and debris and includes important feedbacks between debris accumulation and glacier mass balance. To investigate the impact of debris transport on the response of a glacier to recent and future climate change, we applied this model to a large debris-covered Himalayan glacier—Khumbu Glacier in Nepal. Our results demonstrate that supraglacial debris prolongs the response of the glacier to warming and causes lowering of the glacier surface in situ, concealing the magnitude of mass loss when compared with estimates based on glacierised area. Since the Little Ice Age, Khumbu Glacier has lost 34% of its volume while its area has reduced by only 6%. We predict a decrease in glacier volume of 8–10% by AD2100, accompanied by dynamic and physical detachment of the debris-covered tongue from the active glacier within the next 150 yr. This detachment will accelerate rates of glacier decay, and similar changes are likely for other debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya. •Debris-covered glaciers show a differing response to climate change to clean-ice glaciers.•Many glaciers in the Himalaya are debris-covered, particularly in the Everest region.•We present the first dynamic model of debris transport and feedbacks with mass balance.•Debris-covered Khumbu Glacier in Nepal will lose 8–10% volume by AD2100.•The glacier tongue will detach from the active glacier and accelerate glacier decay.</abstract><pub>Elsevier B.V</pub><doi>10.1016/j.epsl.2015.09.004</doi><tpages>12</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3715-5554</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
fulltext fulltext
identifier ISSN: 0012-821X
ispartof Earth and planetary science letters, 2015-11, Vol.430, p.427-438
issn 0012-821X
1385-013X
language eng
recordid cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_1777996987
source ScienceDirect Freedom Collection
subjects Balancing
Cleaning
Climate change
Debris
Detachment
Everest region
Feedback
glacier dynamics
glacier modelling
Glaciers
Mathematical models
supraglacial debris
title Modelling the feedbacks between mass balance, ice flow and debris transport to predict the response to climate change of debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya
url http://sfxeu10.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/loughborough?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2024-12-24T22%3A29%3A35IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Modelling%20the%20feedbacks%20between%20mass%20balance,%20ice%20flow%20and%20debris%20transport%20to%20predict%20the%20response%20to%20climate%20change%20of%20debris-covered%20glaciers%20in%20the%20Himalaya&rft.jtitle=Earth%20and%20planetary%20science%20letters&rft.au=Rowan,%20Ann%20V.&rft.date=2015-11-15&rft.volume=430&rft.spage=427&rft.epage=438&rft.pages=427-438&rft.issn=0012-821X&rft.eissn=1385-013X&rft_id=info:doi/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.09.004&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E1753472988%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Cgrp_id%3Ecdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a433t-7e53ad6e16fa3018a932fc317c7686f75a2ee73cd5e0c587c9fec6e7963301123%3C/grp_id%3E%3Coa%3E%3C/oa%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=1753472988&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true