More Deaths Than Births: Subnational Natural Decrease in Europe and the United States

This article examines the prevalence and dynamics of natural decrease in the subnational populations of Europe and the United States. Natural decrease results from interactions between fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. We document the greater incidence and degree of natur...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Population and development review 2015-12, Vol.41 (4), p.651-680
Main Authors: Johnson, Kenneth M., Field, Layton M., Poston Jr, Dudley L.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
21st century
Age
Age structure
Births
Censuses
Child mortality
Childbearing
Childbearing age
Childbirth & labor
Children
Comparative analysis
Demographic variables
Demographics
Demography
Females
Fertility
Fertility rates
Migration
Mortality
Mortality rates
Mothers
Nuts
Older adults
Population
Population dynamics
Population growth
Proportions
Ratios
Regression analysis
Regression models
Sociodemographics
Spatial analysis
Spatial discrimination
Women
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Summary:This article examines the prevalence and dynamics of natural decrease in the subnational populations of Europe and the United States. Natural decrease results from interactions between fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. We document the greater incidence and degree of natural decrease in Europe. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, natural decrease occurred in 58 percent of European NUTS 3 areas ("counties") compared to only 28 percent of the US counties. Three critical demographic variables (proportion over 65, child-women ratio, and proportion of women of childbearing age) each exert a significant and distinct impact on the likelihood of natural decrease. Our spatial regression models reflect remarkable consistency in the influence of each of these variables in Europe and in the US, demonstrating the similarity in the demographic processes that produce natural decrease.
ISSN:0098-7921
1728-4457
DOI:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00089.x