Nothing Happens by Accident, or Does It? A Low Prior for Randomness Does Not Explain Belief in Conspiracy Theories

Belief in conspiracy theories has often been associated with a biased perception of randomness, akin to a nothing-happens-by-accident heuristic. Indeed, a low prior for randomness (i.e., believing that randomness is a priori unlikely) could plausibly explain the tendency to believe that a planned de...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Psychological science 2015-11, Vol.26 (11), p.1762-1770
Main Authors: Dieguez, Sebastian, Wagner-Egger, Pascal, Gauvrit, Nicolas
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adolescent
Adult
Algorithms
Belief & doubt
Bias
Conspiracy
Culture
Deception
Delusions - psychology
Female
Heuristic
Heuristics
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Politics
Psychology
Thinking
Young Adult
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Summary:Belief in conspiracy theories has often been associated with a biased perception of randomness, akin to a nothing-happens-by-accident heuristic. Indeed, a low prior for randomness (i.e., believing that randomness is a priori unlikely) could plausibly explain the tendency to believe that a planned deception lies behind many events, as well as the tendency to perceive meaningful information in scattered and irrelevant details; both of these tendencies are traits diagnostic of conspiracist ideation. In three studies, we investigated this hypothesis and failed to find the predicted association between low prior for randomness and conspiracist ideation, even when randomness was explicitly opposed to malevolent human intervention. Conspiracy believers' and nonbelievers' perceptions of randomness were not only indistinguishable from each other but also accurate compared with the normative view arising from the algorithmic information framework. Thus, the motto "nothing happens by accident," taken at face value, does not explain belief in conspiracy theories.
ISSN:0956-7976
1467-9280
DOI:10.1177/0956797615598740