Vulnerability of Indian mustard (Brassica juncea (L.) Czernj. Cosson) to climate variability and future adaptation strategies

• Published in: Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2016-03, Vol.21 (3), p.403-420
• Main Authors: Naresh Kumar, Soora, Aggarwal, Pramod Kumar, Uttam, Kumar, Surabhi, Jain, Rani, D. N. Swaroopa, Chauhan, Nitin, Saxena, Rani
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adaptation; Agricultural production; Atmospheric Sciences; Brassica juncea; Carbon dioxide; climate; Climate adaptation; Climate change; Climate Change Management and Policy; Climate models; Climate variability; Crop yield; Crops; Cultivars; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Environmental impact; Environmental Management; fertilizers; filling period; Global climate; grain yield; Heat; High temperature; Oilseeds; Original Article; Precipitation; Productivity; Rape plants; Regions; sowing date; spatial variation; temperature; temporal variation
• ISSN: 1381-2386; 1573-1596
• DOI: 10.1007/s11027-014-9606-z

A simulation study has been carried out using the InfoCrop mustard model to assess the impact of climate change and adaptation gains and to delineate the vulnerable regions for mustard (Brassica juncea (L.) Czernj. Cosson) production in India. On an all India basis, climate change is projected to reduce mustard grain yield by ∼2 % in 2020 (2010–2039), ∼7.9 % in 2050 (2040–2069) and ∼15 % in 2080 (2070–2099) climate scenarios of MIROC3.2.HI (a global climate model) and Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS, a regional climate model) models, if no adaptation is followed. However, spatiotemporal variations exist for the magnitude of impacts. Yield is projected to reduce in regions with current mean seasonal temperature regimes above 25/10 °C during crop growth. Adapting to climate change through a combination of improved input efficiency, additional fertilizers and adjusting the sowing time of current varieties can increase yield by ∼17 %. With improved varieties, yield can be enhanced by ∼25 % in 2020 climate scenario. But, projected benefits may reduce thereafter. Development of short-duration varieties and improved crop husbandry becomes essential for sustaining mustard yield in future climates. As climatically suitable period for mustard cultivation may reduce in future, short-duration (