Tropical cyclones in the Mozambique Channel: January–March 2012

Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Mozambique Channel from January to March 2012 resulted in five landfalls that affected Madagascar and southeastern Africa. The rainfall, circulation, and temperature fields surrounding the TCs were studied for anomalous characteristics. Case studies were conside...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2015-07, Vol.77 (3), p.2081-2095
Main Authors: Chikoore, Hector, Vermeulen, Jan H., Jury, Mark R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Channels
Circulation
Civil Engineering
Coasts
Cyclogenesis
Cyclones
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environmental Management
Floods
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Hydrogeology
La Nina
Natural Hazards
Original Paper
Rainfall
Tracking
Tropical cyclones
Weather forecasting
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Summary:Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Mozambique Channel from January to March 2012 resulted in five landfalls that affected Madagascar and southeastern Africa. The rainfall, circulation, and temperature fields surrounding the TCs were studied for anomalous characteristics. Case studies were considered for two TCs, which brought flooding to southern Mozambique and adjacent areas: Dando 17 January and Irina 3 March. Weather forecasts underestimated rainfall from Dando and poorly resolved the looping track of Irina. An anomalous easterly circulation associated with Pacific La Niña and warm SST in the SW Indian Ocean are indicated as mechanisms supporting repeated tropical cyclogenesis in the Mozambique Channel. The downstream shedding of a vortex from Madagascar contributed to the variable nature of TC tracks and forecast errors in January–March 2012.
ISSN:0921-030X
1573-0840
DOI:10.1007/s11069-015-1691-0