Prediction of peak- Dst from halo CME/magnetic cloud-speed observations

From the analysis of different sets of magnetic clouds and focusing on the most probable value found for the peak amplitude of their negative B z fields, we present an estimate for the peak intensity of the associated geomagnetic storms (peak Dst). Since the key parameter for this prediction scheme...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics 2004, Vol.66 (2), p.161-165
Main Authors: Gonzalez, W.D, Dal Lago, A, Clúa de Gonzalez, A.L, Vieira, L.E.A, Tsurutani, B.T
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Dst predictions
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
ICMEs
Magnetic storms
Physics of the high neutral atmosphere
Physics of the ionosphere
Physics of the magnetosphere
Solar wind speeds
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Summary:From the analysis of different sets of magnetic clouds and focusing on the most probable value found for the peak amplitude of their negative B z fields, we present an estimate for the peak intensity of the associated geomagnetic storms (peak Dst). Since the key parameter for this prediction scheme turns out to be the peak amplitude of the solar wind speed, we extend this prediction to halo CME events observed near the Sun and associated with the magnetic clouds. Thus, a prediction scheme for peak Dst, based on halo CME-expansion speed observation near the Sun and associated with magnetic clouds, is suggested for the first time. Furthermore, the relationship between the cloud's total magnetic field and its B s component, empirically found for the two sets of the studied clouds, is consistently supported by the results obtained from a numerical study of magnetic clouds.
ISSN:1364-6826
1879-1824
DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2003.09.006