Estimating seismic-source rate parameters associated with incomplete catalogues and superimposed Poisson-renewal generating processes

A probabilistic model is presented to quantify parameters that define the exceedance rates of earthquake magnitudes. Incompleteness of seismic catalogues and superposition of Poisson-renewal earthquake generation processes are both taken into account within a Bayesian framework. The formulation can...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of seismology 2015-01, Vol.19 (1), p.55-68
Main Authors: Alamilla, Jorge L., Vai, Rossana, Esteva, Luis
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian analysis
Catalogues
Coastal environments
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earthquakes
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Gulf of Mexico
Hydrogeology
Mathematical models
Original Article
Parameter estimation
Poisson distribution
Probabilistic methods
Probability theory
Seismic activity
Seismic phenomena
Seismology
Structural Geology
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Description
Summary:A probabilistic model is presented to quantify parameters that define the exceedance rates of earthquake magnitudes. Incompleteness of seismic catalogues and superposition of Poisson-renewal earthquake generation processes are both taken into account within a Bayesian framework. The formulation can be transformed into the parameter estimation of single Poisson or renewal process. The incomplete exceedance rate parameters are estimated from incomplete data, so that the estimated values are equal to those of the complete rate. Two cases are studied: the first one corresponds to a seismic source in the Gulf of Mexico and the other to a seismic source in the southern Pacific coast of Mexico.
ISSN:1383-4649
1573-157X
DOI:10.1007/s10950-014-9450-3