Predictability horizon of oceanic rogue waves

Prediction is a central goal and a yet‐unresolved challenge in the investigation of oceanic rogue waves. Here we define a horizon of predictability for oceanic rogue waves and derive, via extensive computational experiments, a statistically converged predictability time scale for these structures. W...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2014-12, Vol.41 (23), p.8477-8485
Main Author: Alam, Mohammad-Reza
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Assessments
Computation
Computer applications
Evaluation
Geophysics
Height
Horizon
Marine
Mathematical analysis
Mathematical models
Ocean currents
Ocean waves
oceanic rogue waves
Oceanography
Oceans
predictability
Rogue waves
Sea state
Sea states
sensitivity analysis
Structures
Surface water waves
Surface waves
Temporal logic
Time
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Summary:Prediction is a central goal and a yet‐unresolved challenge in the investigation of oceanic rogue waves. Here we define a horizon of predictability for oceanic rogue waves and derive, via extensive computational experiments, a statistically converged predictability time scale for these structures. We show that this time scale is a function of the sea state (i.e., severity of the ambient ocean waves), the height of the anticipated rogue wave, and the level of uncertainties in the ocean measurements. The presented predictability time scale establishes a quantitative metric on the combined temporal effects of the variety of mechanisms that together lead to the formation of a rogue wave and is crucial for the assessment of validity of rogue wave predictions, as well as for the critical evaluation of results from the widely used model equations. Key PointsThere is a predictability time scale associated with rogue wave eventsLarger rogue waves have a shorter horizon of predictabilityRogue waves are less predictable in rougher seas (due to nonlinearities)
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1002/2014GL061214