Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Production

Climate change will have large impacts on water resources and its predictions are fraught with uncertainties in West Africa. With the current global drive for renewable energy due to climate change, there is a need for understanding the effects of hydro-climatic changes on water resources and hydrop...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate (Basel) 2016-09, Vol.4 (3), p.34-34
Main Authors: Oyerinde, Ganiyu, Wisser, Dominik, Hountondji, Fabien, Odofin, Ayo, Lawin, Agnide, Afouda, Abel, Diekkrüger, Bernd
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Alternative energy
Climate change
Climate change models
Climate models
Climatic data
Dams
Electricity
Environmental impact
Global climate
Hydroelectric power
Hydrologic models
Hydrology
Marine
Renewable energy
Renewable resources
Reservoirs
Soil sciences
Water inflow
Water resources
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Summary:Climate change will have large impacts on water resources and its predictions are fraught with uncertainties in West Africa. With the current global drive for renewable energy due to climate change, there is a need for understanding the effects of hydro-climatic changes on water resources and hydropower generation. A hydrological model was used to model runoff inflow into the largest hydroelectric dam (Kainji) in the Niger Basin (West Africa) under present and future conditions. Inflow to the reservoir was simulated using hydro-climatic data from a set of dynamically downscaled 8 global climate models (GCM) with two emission scenarios from the CORDEX-Africa regional downscaling experiment, driven with CMIP5 data. Observed records of the Kainji Lake were used to develop a hydroelectricity production model to simulate future energy production for the reservoir. Results indicate an increase in inflow into the reservoir and concurrent increases in hydropower production for the majority of the GCM data under the two scenarios. This analysis helps planning hydropower schemes for sustainable hydropower production.
ISSN:2225-1154
2225-1154
DOI:10.3390/cli4030034