Methodology for improving the reliability of biomass energy potential estimation

• Published in: Biomass & bioenergy 2016-05, Vol.88, p.43-58
• Main Authors: Gonzalez-Salazar, Miguel Angel, Venturini, Mauro, Poganietz, Witold-Roger, Finkenrath, Matthias, Spina, Pier Ruggero
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Biomass; Colombia; Energy potential; Reliability
• ISSN: 0961-9534; 1873-2909
• DOI: 10.1016/j.biombioe.2016.03.026

This paper presents a novel approach to address uncertainty and improve reliability of the estimation of the biomass energy potential at a country level, particularly suitable for situations when quality and availability of data are limited. The proposed methodology improves the prediction reliability by following four steps: 1) using a simple accounting framework, 2) using a robust selection of probability density functions, 3) using a probabilistic propagation of uncertainty and 4) using sensitivity analysis to identify key variables contributing to uncertainty as well as a root cause analysis and a set of sub-models to improve estimation of key variables. The application of the methodology to the energy scenario in Colombia shows that the improved estimation of the theoretical energy potential has an almost identical mean value compared to the preliminary estimate, but the uncertainty is significantly lower (less than 50%). Moreover, the mean value of the technical energy potential obtained through the methodology is 25% lower than the preliminary potential and the uncertainty reduces by one third. •Development of a novel approach to address uncertainty and improve reliability of biomass energy potential estimation.•The methodology uses probabilistic propagation of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to identify key variables.•Application of the methodology to the energy scenario in Colombia.•The results show that the uncertainty is significantly decreased (from one third to one half).