The impact of climate change under different thinning regimes on carbon sequestration in a German forest district

• Published in: Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2016-08, Vol.21 (6), p.861-881
• Main Authors: Borys, A., Suckow, F., Reyer, C., Gutsch, M., Lasch-Born, P.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences; Biomass; Carbon dioxide; Carbon sequestration; Climate change; Climate Change Management and Policy; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Environmental impact; Environmental Management; Forest management; Forest soils; Original Article; Timber; Wood products
• ISSN: 1381-2386; 1573-1596
• DOI: 10.1007/s11027-014-9628-6

The objective of this paper is to assess how much carbon (C) is currently stored in a forest district in Thuringia, Germany, and how the carbon stocks will develop up to the year 2099 with a changing climate and under various management regimes (including no management), with different assumptions about carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fertilization effects. We applied the process-based model 4C and a wood product model to a forest district in Germany and evaluated both models for the period from 2002 to 2010, based on forest inventory data for the stands in the district. Then, we simulated the growth of the stands in the forest district under three different realizations of a climate change scenario, combined with different management regimes. Our simulations show that in 2099, between 630 and 1149 t C ha −1 will be stored in this district. The simulations also showed that climate change affects carbon sequestration. The no management strategy sequestered the highest amount of carbon (8.7 t C ha −1  year −1 ), which was greater than the management regimes. In the model, the possible fertilization effect of CO 2 is an important factor. However, forest management remains the determining factor in this forest district.