Fine-scale estimations of bioclimatic change in the Valencia region, Spain

• Published in: Atmospheric research 2016-11, Vol.180, p.150-164
• Main Authors: Miró, Juan Javier, Estrela, María José, Caselles, Vicente, Olcina-Cantos, Jorge
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bioclimatic horizons; Climate change; Fine-scale mapping; Regressive thermotypes; Rivas-Martínez; Temperatures
• ISSN: 0169-8095; 1873-2895
• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.05.020

Recent advances in statistical downscaling have allowed the reconstruction of temperatures for the complete 1948–2011 period in a spatial resolution of 90m and without gaps for the Valencian Community (Spain) and bordering areas. It presently enables analyses in this region, which allows the determination of recent temperature changes at subregional and local scales. The present work focuses on obtaining the thermicity index according to Rivas-Martínez, a well-known indicator of different thermotypes associated with bioclimatic horizons. The change in this index, which has happened in the region between 1948 and 2011, was calculated by generating fine-scale maps of the potential extension of different thermotypes. The results show a greater regression for the thermotypes in a finicolous position, e.g. Orotemperate, Supratemperate and Supramediterranean horizons, which herein indicate greater potential vulnerability in climate change. In the absence of, and given the need for, such fine-scale information, this work should be useful for specialized researchers to spatially limit the potentially most vulnerable biotopes to climate change. Change for the thermicity index of Rivas-Martínez (It) between a reference period (1948–1979) and a test period (1997–2011). The It (Itc) was calculated from average temperature of the maximum and minimum of the coldest month and annual mean temperature, obtained from statistical downscaling and temperatures interpolation performed in Miró (2014). The results show a greater regression for the thermotypes in a finicolous position, e.g. Orotemperate (Otei) and Supratemperate (Stes–Stei) horizons, as well as Supramediterranean Itc equivalents (Smes, Smei). This indicates greater potential vulnerability in climate change for biotopes and taxa located over the highest mountains. Location and elevation is included (left) for reference. [Display omitted]