Mothers' long-run career patterns after first birth

Using Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis we investigate career paths of Austrian women after their first birth. This data-driven method allows characterizing long-term career paths of mothers over up to 19 years by transitions between parental leave, non-employment and different forms of empl...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, Statistics in society Statistics in society, 2016-06, Vol.179 (3), p.707-725
Main Authors: Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia, Pamminger, Christoph, Weber, Andrea, Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian analysis
Birth
Childbirth & labor
Classification
Cluster analysis
Employment
Family gap
Fertility
Markov analysis
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
Maternity & paternity leaves
Mathematical analysis
Multinomial logit
Panel data
Professional development
Specifications
Statistics
Timing of birth
Tracking
Transition data
Unemployment
Wages
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Summary:Using Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis we investigate career paths of Austrian women after their first birth. This data-driven method allows characterizing long-term career paths of mothers over up to 19 years by transitions between parental leave, non-employment and different forms of employment. We classify women into five cluster groups with very different long-run career trajectories after childbeahng. We further model group membership with a multinomial specification within the finite mixture model. This approach gives insights into the determinants of long-run outcomes. In particular, giving birth at an older age appears to be associated with very diverse outcomes: it is related to higher odds of dropping out of the labour force, on the one hand, but also to higher odds of reaching a high wage career track, on the other hand.
ISSN:0964-1998
1467-985X
DOI:10.1111/rssa.12151