Technical, economic and uncertainty modelling of a wind farm project

• Published in: Energy conversion and management 2016-01, Vol.107, p.22-33
• Main Authors: Afanasyeva, Svetlana, Saari, Jussi, Kalkofen, Martin, Partanen, Jarmo, Pyrhönen, Olli
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Computer simulation; Economics; Financial modelling; Monte Carlo methods; Monte Carlo simulation; Project management; Risk; Risk assessment; Uncertainty; Wind farm; Wind power; Wind power generation
• ISSN: 0196-8904; 1879-2227
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2015.09.048

•A deterministic and stochastic wind farm models are presented.•Uncertainties are analysed by sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo method.•Power production model is validated and found to match the plant measurements well.•VaR indicates a non-negligible risk of the project becoming unprofitable.•Wind velocity, power curve and electricity price are the most important factors. Wind is one of the fastest-growing renewable sources of electricity. As with most renewables, the economic viability relies on public subsidies. Even among renewables, the economic evaluation of wind projects is particularly challenging due to the unpredictability of the energy source, wind, and the high sensitivity of the project profitability to changes in a number of parameters. This makes the uncertainty analysis an important topic of research in the wind power sector. This study presents a method of combining two uncertainty analysis methods, sensitivity study and the Monte Carlo method, together with a technical and economic model of a wind farm, in an effort to improve the understanding of the practical effects of the uncertainties, and how they affect the financial risks of wind projects.