A Validation of the Essen Stroke Risk Score in Outpatients with Ischemic Stroke

Background Little is known about the predictive accuracy of the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) for Chinese stroke outpatients. Our goal was to perform an external validation of the ESRS using a large multicenter cohort of outpatients with ischemic stroke (IS). Methods We estimated the 1-year cumulat...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of stroke and cerebrovascular diseases 2016-09, Vol.25 (9), p.2189-2195
Main Authors: Chen, Pan, MD, Liu, Yi, MD, Wang, Yilong, MD, Wang, Anxin, MD, Zheng, Huaguang, MD, Zhao, Xingquan, MD, Yan, Aoshuang, MD, Wang, Yongjun, MD
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Asian Continental Ancestry Group
Brain Ischemia - complications
Cardiovascular
Cohort Studies
Female
Humans
Ischemic stroke
Male
Middle Aged
Neurology
Outcome Assessment (Health Care)
Outpatients
Reproducibility of Results
Risk Factors
Severity of Illness Index
Stroke - diagnosis
Stroke - etiology
the Essen Stroke Risk Score
Time Factors
validation
Young Adult
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Summary:Background Little is known about the predictive accuracy of the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) for Chinese stroke outpatients. Our goal was to perform an external validation of the ESRS using a large multicenter cohort of outpatients with ischemic stroke (IS). Methods We estimated the 1-year cumulative event rates for both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events for patients in different ESRS categories using data from a prospective cohort of 3316 outpatients with IS admitted to 18 hospitals in China. In addition, we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the ESRS for both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events using C statistic. Results In the nonatrial fibrillation IS outpatients, the cumulative 1-year event rate was 2.47% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.97%-3.06%) for recurrent stroke and 4.32% (95% CI, 3.65%-5.06%) for combined vascular events. The event rates were significantly higher in patients in higher ESRS categories. The ESRS had a predictive accuracy of .63 (.57-.69) for recurrent stroke and .63 (.58-.68) for combined vascular events. Conclusion Among the Chinese outpatients with IS, the ESRS was able to stratify the risk of both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events equally well. A prediction model suitable for Chinese IS populations is needed.
ISSN:1052-3057
1532-8511
DOI:10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2016.02.001