Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature

Southern Africa is subject to recurrent droughts which cause severe food shortages. There is considerable evidence that El Nino warm events in the Pacific Ocean are linked to below-average rainfall in southern Africa, and the 1991-92 El Nino event was accompanied by the worst drought in southern Afr...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature (London) 1994-07, Vol.370 (6486), p.204-205
Main Authors: Cane, M.A, Eshel, G, Buckland, R.W
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural and forest climatology and meteorology. Irrigation. Drainage
Agricultural and forest meteorology
Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions
Biological and medical sciences
climatic factors
Climatic models of plant production
Corn
crop yield
Drought
El Nino
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
General agronomy. Plant production
Generalities. Techniques. Climatology. Meteorology. Climatic models of plant production
Humanities and Social Sciences
letter
maritime climate
multidisciplinary
Rain
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Sea surface temperature
temperature
Zea mays
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Summary:Southern Africa is subject to recurrent droughts which cause severe food shortages. There is considerable evidence that El Nino warm events in the Pacific Ocean are linked to below-average rainfall in southern Africa, and the 1991-92 El Nino event was accompanied by the worst drought in southern Africa this century, affecting nearly 100 million people. But although models can predict El Nino events a year in advance, the drought was not anticipated, increasing relief costs. Here we present data showing a strong correlation between an El Nino index and both rainfall and maize yield in Zimbabwe. Surprisingly, the correlation with maize yield is stronger than that with rainfall, with more than 60% of the variance in yield accounted for by sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean half-way around the world. We also show that model predictions of the El Nino index provide accurate forecasts of maize yield in Zimbabwe, with lead times of up to a year. As maize is the most important food crop for the ten-nation Southern African Development Community region we suggest that this approach could provide an effective early-warning system for southern African drought-induced families.
ISSN:0028-0836
1476-4687
DOI:10.1038/370204a0