Impacts of climate change on Missouri River Basin water yield

• Published in: Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2001-10, Vol.37 (5), p.1119-1129
• Main Authors: STONE, Mark C, HOTCHKISS, Rollin H, HUBBARD, Carter M, FONTAINE, Thomas A, MEARNS, Linda O, ARNOLD, Jeff G
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Exact sciences and technology; Hydrogeology; Hydrology. Hydrogeology; Pollution, environment geology; USA, Missouri R
• ISSN: 1093-474X; 1752-1688
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2001.tb03626.x

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was applied to the Missouri River Basin to examine the impact of climate change on water yield. A changed climate scenario was produced with a general circulation model at a resolution of approximately 5 degree in physical space, and a Regional Climate Model was used to downscale the climate data to a horizontal grid point spacing of 50 km. A geographic information system was then used to incorporate the model data into a hydrologic model that was used to assess the impacts on water yield for the period ranging 1965 to 1989. Each of the modeling components is described. With a doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, the results showed dramatic increases in water yields across the northern and northwestern portions of the study area during the spring, summer, and fall, increasing by as much as 70% or more in specific subbasins. An overall decrease in water yield was predicted for the southeastern portions of the basin. The average reservoir system releases for the baseline and changed climate scenarios were calculated at 670 and 1160 m super(3)/s, respectively.