An improved conflicting evidence combination approach based on a new supporting probability distance

• Published in: Expert systems with applications 2015-07, Vol.42 (12), p.5139-5149
• Main Authors: Yu, Cholsok, Yang, Jianhong, Yang, Debin, Ma, Xianghong, Min, Hyonchun
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Ambiguity; Evidence conflict; Evidence theory; Expert systems; Information fusion; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Pignistic probability function; Rule based; Supporting probability function
• ISSN: 0957-4174; 1873-6793
• DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2015.02.038

•New concepts of supporting probability function and its distance are proposed.•A novel combination method based on supporting probability distance is proposed.•The new distance is a better measure for conflict information containing non-singleton elements.•The proposed method can obtain more reasonable result than that of the pignistic distance method. To avoid counter-intuitive result of classical Dempster’s combination rule when dealing with highly conflict information, many improved combination methods have been developed through modifying the basic probability assignments (BPAs) of bodies of evidence (BOEs) by using a certain measure of the degree of conflict or uncertain information, such as Jousselme’s distance, the pignistic probability distance and the ambiguity measure. However, if BOEs contain some non-singleton elements and the differences among their BPAs are larger than 0.5, the current conflict measure methods have limitations in describing the interrelationship among the conflict BOEs and may even lead to wrong combination results. In order to solve this problem, a new distance function, which is called supporting probability distance, is proposed to characterize the differences among BOEs. With the new distance, the information of how much a focal element is supported by the other focal elements in BOEs can be given. Also, a new combination rule based on the supporting probability distance is proposed for the combination of the conflicting evidences. The credibility and the discounting factor of each BOE are generated by the supporting probability distance and the weighted BOEs are combined directly using Dempster’s rules. Analytical results of numerical examples show that the new distance has a better capability of describing the interrelationships among BOEs, especially for the highly conflicting BOEs containing non-singleton elements and the proposed new combination method has better applicability and effectiveness compared with the existing methods.