Predicting Changes in the Radio Emission Fluxes of Extragalactic Sources

Data from long-term monitoring with the 26-m University of Michigan radio telescope at a frequency of 14.5 GHz (1974-2011) is used to predict changes in the radio emission fluxes from the extragalactic sources 3C273, 3C120, 3C345, 3C446, 3C454.3, OJ287, OT081, and BLLac. The predictions are based on...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Astrophysics 2016-06, Vol.59 (2), p.213-226
Main Authors: Sukharev, A. L., Ryabov, M. I., Donskikh, G. I.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Astronomy
Astrophysics
Astrophysics and Astroparticles
Astrophysics and Cosmology
Emissions
Fluxes
Harmonics
Linear prediction
Measurement
Methods
Monitoring
Observations
Observations and Techniques
Physics
Physics and Astronomy
Pollution sources
Radio astronomy
Radio emission
Radio sources (Astronomical bodies)
Radio spectrum
Radio telescopes
Space Exploration and Astronautics
Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics
Spectra
Stars & galaxies
Wavelet analysis
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Summary:Data from long-term monitoring with the 26-m University of Michigan radio telescope at a frequency of 14.5 GHz (1974-2011) is used to predict changes in the radio emission fluxes from the extragalactic sources 3C273, 3C120, 3C345, 3C446, 3C454.3, OJ287, OT081, and BLLac. The predictions are based on data on the major periods of variability and their durations obtained by wavelet analysis. The radio emission fluxes from the sources 3C345, 3C446, and 3C454.3, which have complicated variabilities, are predicted using an autoregression linear prediction method. This yields a forecast of the flux variations extending up to 5 years. Harmonic prediction is used for another group of sources, BLLac, OJ287, and OT081, with rapid variability. This approach yielded forecasts extending 4-9 years. For the sources 3C273 and 3C120, which have stable long periods, the harmonic method was also used and yielded a forecast extending up to 16 years. The reliability of the prediction was confirmed by independent observational data from the MOJAVE program for 2011-2015.
ISSN:0571-7256
1573-8191
DOI:10.1007/s10511-016-9428-7