YES or NO: Predicting the 2015 GReferendum results using Google Trends

We examine the possibility of predicting the 2015 Greek Referendum results by analyzing data from Google Trends on the ‘YES’ and ‘NO’ search terms. Our analysis shows that, despite the voting intention polls of the YES and NO votes being marginally one above the other throughout the prevoting period...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Technological forecasting & social change 2016-08, Vol.109, p.1-5
Main Authors: Mavragani, Amaryllis, Tsagarakis, Konstantinos P.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Approximation
Big Data
Data analysis
Election results
Elections
Google Trends
Internet behavior
Mathematical analysis
Prediction
Predictions
Referendum
Referendums
Search engines
Searching
Studies
Technological forecasting
Trends
Voting
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Summary:We examine the possibility of predicting the 2015 Greek Referendum results by analyzing data from Google Trends on the ‘YES’ and ‘NO’ search terms. Our analysis shows that, despite the voting intention polls of the YES and NO votes being marginally one above the other throughout the prevoting period, the NO hits are clearly and every day above the YES ones, with statistically significant evidence. By analyzing data from Google Trends, we calculate a valid approximation of the final result, thus contributing to the discussion of using Google Trends as an elections' results prediction tool in the future. •We analyze data from Google Trends to predict the 2015 Greek referendum results.•Only options are “YES” and “NO” — no spelling or translation errors.•Google Trends collects data from Google; actual searches.•Our results better approximate the final results than poll agencies.•Google Trends seems to be useful for predicting elections results.
ISSN:0040-1625
1873-5509
DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2016.04.028