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The Recent Trend and Variance Increase of the Annular Mode
This study examines whether both the trend and the increase in variance of the Northern Hemisphere winter annular mode during the past 30 years arise from atmospheric internal variability. To address this question, a synthetic time series is generated that has the same intraseasonal stochastic prope...
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| Published in: | Journal of climate 2002-01, Vol.15 (1), p.88-94 |
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| Language: | English |
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| container_end_page | 94 |
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| container_start_page | 88 |
| container_title | Journal of climate |
| container_volume | 15 |
| creator | Feldstein, Steven B. |
| description | This study examines whether both the trend and the increase in variance of the Northern Hemisphere winter annular mode during the past 30 years arise from atmospheric internal variability. To address this question, a synthetic time series is generated that has the same intraseasonal stochastic properties as the annular mode. By generating a distribution of linear trend values for the synthetic time series, and through a chi-square statistical analysis, it is shown that this trend and variance increase are well in excess of the level expected from internal variability of the atmosphere. This implies that both the trend and the variance increase of the annular mode are due either to coupling with the hydrosphere and/or cryosphere or to driving external to the climate system. This behavior contrasts that of the first 60 years of the twentieth century, for which it is shown that all of the interannual variability of the annular mode can be explained by atmospheric internal variability. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0088:trtavi>2.0.co;2 |
| format | article |
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To address this question, a synthetic time series is generated that has the same intraseasonal stochastic properties as the annular mode. By generating a distribution of linear trend values for the synthetic time series, and through a chi-square statistical analysis, it is shown that this trend and variance increase are well in excess of the level expected from internal variability of the atmosphere. This implies that both the trend and the variance increase of the annular mode are due either to coupling with the hydrosphere and/or cryosphere or to driving external to the climate system. This behavior contrasts that of the first 60 years of the twentieth century, for which it is shown that all of the interannual variability of the annular mode can be explained by atmospheric internal variability.</description><subject>Atmosphere</subject><subject>Atmospherics</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Climatology. 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Climate change</subject><subject>Earth cryosphere</subject><subject>Earth, ocean, space</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>External geophysics</subject><subject>Meteorology</subject><subject>Noise spectra</subject><subject>Seasons</subject><subject>Spectral index</subject><subject>Statistical mode</subject><subject>Statistical variance</subject><subject>Time series</subject><issn>0894-8755</issn><issn>1520-0442</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2002</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNpdkNFK5DAUhoO4sKPrIywUQVkvOp4kTZrqIgyDugOzDEj1NpxJT7FDbTXpCL69KSMKXoQDyXf-_HyMnXOYcp6rc64EpJBl4o8AEGfA1V8AYy4GP-BrcyWmMHX9pdhjk09yn03AFFlqcqV-soMQNgBcaIAJuygfKbkjR92QlJ66KsF4HtA32DlKFp3zhIGSvk6GSM66btuiT_73Ff1iP2psAx19zEN2f3Ndzv-ly9XtYj5bpi5TZkizgmutCuQVGFgrWZm1yd26yikj0jXWa8lzTSo21BFUsnbGVRnPEZVGJHnITne5z75_2VIY7FMTHLUtdtRvg-VGaJ3JIoLH38BNv_Vd7GaFEKbgqsgjdLuDnO9D8FTbZ988oX-zHOwo2I7a7KjNjoJtFGxHwba8K2cPCxtv7HxlRUw6-fgOg8O29tFYE77ipJJxb6z1e8dtwtD7z3ehRVQjpXwHd9uG0A</recordid><startdate>20020101</startdate><enddate>20020101</enddate><creator>Feldstein, Steven B.</creator><general>American Meteorological Society</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7QH</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>7X2</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88F</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8AF</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>M0K</scope><scope>M1Q</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>S0X</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20020101</creationdate><title>The Recent Trend and Variance Increase of the Annular Mode</title><author>Feldstein, Steven B.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c458t-4916659a1d080b53d8b87cbd7e4ee6fafb3176e5089666553fc8cd417aa56aae3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2002</creationdate><topic>Atmosphere</topic><topic>Atmospherics</topic><topic>Climate</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate models</topic><topic>Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change</topic><topic>Earth cryosphere</topic><topic>Earth, ocean, space</topic><topic>Exact sciences and technology</topic><topic>External geophysics</topic><topic>Meteorology</topic><topic>Noise spectra</topic><topic>Seasons</topic><topic>Spectral index</topic><topic>Statistical mode</topic><topic>Statistical variance</topic><topic>Time series</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Feldstein, Steven B.</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Aqualine</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Military Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>STEM Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>eLibrary</collection><collection>AUTh Library subscriptions: ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Agriculture Science Database</collection><collection>Military Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Research Library</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>ProQuest advanced technologies & aerospace journals</collection><collection>ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>SIRS Editorial</collection><jtitle>Journal of climate</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Feldstein, Steven B.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>The Recent Trend and Variance Increase of the Annular Mode</atitle><jtitle>Journal of climate</jtitle><date>2002-01-01</date><risdate>2002</risdate><volume>15</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>88</spage><epage>94</epage><pages>88-94</pages><issn>0894-8755</issn><eissn>1520-0442</eissn><abstract>This study examines whether both the trend and the increase in variance of the Northern Hemisphere winter annular mode during the past 30 years arise from atmospheric internal variability. 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| identifier | ISSN: 0894-8755 |
| ispartof | Journal of climate, 2002-01, Vol.15 (1), p.88-94 |
| issn | 0894-8755 1520-0442 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_18266439 |
| source | JSTOR Archival Journals and Primary Sources Collection |
| subjects | Atmosphere Atmospherics Climate Climate change Climate models Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change Earth cryosphere Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Meteorology Noise spectra Seasons Spectral index Statistical mode Statistical variance Time series |
| title | The Recent Trend and Variance Increase of the Annular Mode |
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