Crime Seasonality: Examining the Temporal Fluctuations of Property Crime in Cities With Varying Climates

This study investigates whether crime patterns fluctuate periodically throughout the year using data containing different property crime types in two Canadian cities with differing climates. Using police report data, a series of ordinary least squares (OLS; Vancouver, British Columbia) and negative...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology 2017-12, Vol.61 (16), p.1866-1891
Main Authors: Linning, Shannon J., Andresen, Martin A., Brantingham, Paul J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
British Columbia
Cities
Climate
Crime
Crime - statistics & numerical data
Humans
Least-Squares Analysis
Offenses
Ontario
Police
Property
Property crime
Property offences
Regression Analysis
Seasons
Summer
Temporal patterns
Time
Weather
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Summary:This study investigates whether crime patterns fluctuate periodically throughout the year using data containing different property crime types in two Canadian cities with differing climates. Using police report data, a series of ordinary least squares (OLS; Vancouver, British Columbia) and negative binomial (Ottawa, Ontario) regressions were employed to examine the corresponding temporal patterns of property crime in Vancouver (2003-2013) and Ottawa (2006-2008). Moreover, both aggregate and disaggregate models were run to examine whether different weather and temporal variables had a distinctive impact on particular offences. Overall, results suggest that cities that experience greater variations in weather throughout the year have more distinct increases of property offences in the summer months and that different climate variables affect certain crime types, thus advocating for disaggregate analysis in the future.
ISSN:0306-624X
1552-6933
DOI:10.1177/0306624X16632259