The short-term association between meteorological factors and mumps in Jining, China

• Published in: The Science of the total environment 2016-10, Vol.568, p.1069-1075
• Main Authors: Li, Runzi, Lin, Hualiang, Liang, Yumin, Zhang, Tao, Luo, Cheng, Jiang, Zheng, Xu, Qinqin, Xue, Fuzhong, Liu, Yanxun, Li, Xiujun
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adolescent; Child; Child, Preschool; China - epidemiology; Female; Generalized additive model; Humans; Incidence; Male; Meteorological Concepts; Meteorological factors; Models, Theoretical; Mumps; Mumps - epidemiology; Mumps - virology; Time series analysis; Urban Population - statistics & numerical data
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.158

An increasing trend of the incidence of mumps has been observed in a few developing countries in recent years, presenting a major threat to children's health. A few studies have examined the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps with inconsistent findings. The daily data of meteorological variables and mumps from 2009 to 2013 were obtained from Jining, a temperate inland city of China. A generalized additive model was used to quantify the association between meteorological factors and mumps based on the exposure-response relationship. A total of 8520 mumps cases were included in this study. We found a nonlinear relationship of daily mean temperature, sunshine duration and relative humidity with mumps, with an approximately linear association for mean temperature above 4°C (excess risk (ER) for 1°C increase was 2.72%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.38%, 3.05% on the current day), for relative humidity above 54%, the ER for 1% increase was −1.86% (95% CI: −2.06%, −1.65%) at lag day 14; and for sunshine duration higher than 5h/d, the ER for per 1h/d increase was12.91% (95% CI: 11.38%, 14.47%) at lag day 1. While we found linear effects for daily wind speed (ER: 2.98%, 95% CI: 2.71%, 3.26% at lag day 13). This study suggests that meteorological factors might be important predictors of incidence of mumps, and should be considered in its control and prevention. [Display omitted] •A total of 8520 mumps cases were included and the study at the daily level was accurate enough to flexibly explore the impacts.•The study checked the linearity hypothesis in temperate region.•Thresholds for some meteorological variables were identified.