Loading…

Lifting the US crude oil export ban: A numerical partial equilibrium analysis

The upheaval in global crude oil markets and the boom in shale oil production in North America brought scrutiny on the US export ban for crude oil from 1975. The ban was eventually lifted in early 2016. This paper examines the shifts of global trade flows and strategic refinery investments in a spat...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy policy 2016-10, Vol.97, p.258-266
Main Authors: Langer, Lissy, Huppmann, Daniel, Holz, Franziska
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The upheaval in global crude oil markets and the boom in shale oil production in North America brought scrutiny on the US export ban for crude oil from 1975. The ban was eventually lifted in early 2016. This paper examines the shifts of global trade flows and strategic refinery investments in a spatial, game-theoretic partial equilibrium model. We consider detailed oil supply chain infrastructure with multiple crude oil types, distinct oil products, as well as specific refinery configurations and modes of transport. Prices, quantities produced and consumed, as well as infrastructure and refining capacity investments are endogenous to the model. We compare two scenarios: an insulated US crude oil market, and a counter-factual with lifted export restrictions. We find a significant expansion of US sweet crude exports with the lift of the export ban. In the US refinery sector, more (imported) heavy sour crude is transformed. Countries importing US sweet crude gain from higher product output, while avoiding costly refinery investments. Producers of heavy sour crude (e.g. the Middle East) are incentivised to climb up the value chain to defend their market share and maintain their dominant position. •We study the impacts of lifting the US crude ban on global oil flows and investments.•We find massive expansion of US sweet crude oil exports.•We analyze the resulting welfare effects for US producers, refiners and consumers.•We indicate the changes on global trade patterns.•We conclude that lifting the ban is the right policy for the US and the global economy.
ISSN:0301-4215
1873-6777
DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.07.040