Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using prognostic tools and regression analysis

For an adequate planning of waste management systems the accurate forecast of waste generation is an essential step, since various factors can affect waste trends. The application of predictive and prognosis models are useful tools, as reliable support for decision making processes. In this paper so...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of environmental management 2016-11, Vol.182, p.80-93
Main Authors: Ghinea, Cristina, Drăgoi, Elena Niculina, Comăniţă, Elena-Diana, Gavrilescu, Marius, Câmpean, Teofil, Curteanu, Silvia, Gavrilescu, Maria
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Decision Making
Forecasting - methods
Modeling
Models, Theoretical
Municipal solid waste
Prognosis
Refuse Disposal - methods
Regression
Regression Analysis
Romania
Software
Solid waste
Solid Waste - analysis
Solid Waste - statistics & numerical data
Time series
Trend analysis
Waste management
Waste Management - methods
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Summary:For an adequate planning of waste management systems the accurate forecast of waste generation is an essential step, since various factors can affect waste trends. The application of predictive and prognosis models are useful tools, as reliable support for decision making processes. In this paper some indicators such as: number of residents, population age, urban life expectancy, total municipal solid waste were used as input variables in prognostic models in order to predict the amount of solid waste fractions. We applied Waste Prognostic Tool, regression analysis and time series analysis to forecast municipal solid waste generation and composition by considering the Iasi Romania case study. Regression equations were determined for six solid waste fractions (paper, plastic, metal, glass, biodegradable and other waste). Accuracy Measures were calculated and the results showed that S-curve trend model is the most suitable for municipal solid waste (MSW) prediction. •Waste Prognostic Tool, regression analysis, time series analysis forecast municipal solid waste.•MSW generation was predicted using regression and trend analysis.•Population aged 15–59 years and total MSW strongly influences the results.•Biodegradable waste will continue to be the highest percentage fraction of the MSW.
ISSN:0301-4797
1095-8630
DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.07.026